Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS LEKIMA (HANNA)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008

Name: TROPICAL STORM LEKIMA [HANNA/16W/0714]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 01 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) MON 01 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 004
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM LEKIMA (HANNA) STRENGTHENED MORE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY
OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA...AIMING FOR THE GULF OF TONKIN AND NORTHERN

VIETNAM.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: LEKIMA is expected to move West to WNW across the

South China Sea for the next 12 hours before turning sharply NW'ly. It

is likely to become a Typhoon this afternoon. The 2 to 4-day forecast

shows LEKIMA passing just to the SW of Hainan Island around tomorrow

morning, bringing typhoon conditions to the southern part of island.

Upon moving into the Gulf of Tonkin and reaching its peak winds of

150 km/hr, LEKIMA shall resume its WNW track until its landfall over

North-Central Vietnam early Thursday morning, Oct 04. LEKIMA shall be

downgraded into a Tropical Storm upon crossing the terrain of North

Vietnam, dissipating on Friday morning Oct 05 over Laos.

+ EFFECTS: LEKIMA's inner rain bands continues to expand but remains

over the South China Sea near the coast of Central Vietnam, however,

the NW, Western and SW outer bands continues to spread across Central

& Southern Vietnam, Hainan and portions of Myanmar, Laos & Cambodia.

Cloudy skies with passing light to moderate and sometimes heavy

downpour can be expected along Lekima's outer bands...becoming more

intense and windy as the inner bands moves through. Flash floods and

mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-lying and mountainous

regions of the affected areas.

+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Southwest (SW)

Monsoon enhanced by a new strong Tropical Disturbance (LPA) over the

Philippine Sea - will continue to bring cloudy skies with "on & off"

rains & South to SW'ly winds of 20 km/hr or higher across Western

Philippines becoming more frequent over NCR, Western portions of

Central Luzon, Western Visayas, Southern Luzon and Bicol Region.

Landslides and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain

slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the

affected areas.

+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: A new and strong Tropical Disturbance

(LPA/91W/1006 MB) has been observed developing over the Philippine

Sea, some 900 km East of Casiguran, Aurora (15.9N 130.6E)...barely

moving...with max sustained winds of 30 km/hr. This system may become

a Tropical Cyclone within a day or two as depicted on almost all of the

computer forecast models. Watch for more updates on this newly-formed

disturbance.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 01 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.7º N...LONGITUDE 113.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 535 KM (290 NM) ESE OF DA NANG, VIETNAM

DISTANCE 2: 610 KM (330 NM) ESE OF HUE, VIETNAM

DISTANCE 3: 540 KM (292 NM) SE OF SANYA, HAINAN IS.

DISTANCE 4: 565 KM (305 NM) SSE OF QIONGHAI, HAINAN IS.

DISTANCE 5: 870 KM (470 NM) WEST OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: GULF OF TONKIN-VIETNAM AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 835 KM (450 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 20 FEET (6.0 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM HONG KONG TIME MON OCTOBER 01
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 01 OCTOBER: 15.0N 112.2E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 15.8N 111.3E / 140-165 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 17.3N 109.3E / 150-185 KPH / WNW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 01 OCTOBER POSITION: 14.6N 113.3E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 16W (LEKIMA) HAS SEEN INCREASED CONVECTION
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF LUZON, AND
EAST OF TS 16W SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS AN
AREA OF EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, WHICH IS AIDING CONVECTION ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM. OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS, ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. THE STORM HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SHANGHAI ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA...(more)
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RECENT TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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