Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS INENG (17W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL STORM INENG [17W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) TUE 02 OCTOBER 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) TUE 02 OCTOBER
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING NUMBER 002-A
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL STORM INENG (17W) NEWLY-FORMED OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA...

BARELY MOVING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...MAY POSE A THREAT TO BATANES-

TAIWAN AREA IN THE COMING DAYS...INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY.

Note: Position has been relocated to the east based on latest 5:00 AM
Microwave Pass.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: INENG is expected to undergo a clockwise loop be-

fore turning and moving slowly WNW within the next 12 to 24 hours and

rapidly intensify, due to continued decrease of wind shear along the

area. The 3 to 5-day forecast shows INENG becoming a Typhoon on Friday

morning Oct 5 and shall accelerate NW'ly in the direction of Northern

Taiwan area. If wind shear continues to relax, INENG may reach Cat 2

status, with projected wind speeds of 175 km/hr as it approaches the

Northern Coast of Taiwan on Sunday morning Oct 07.

+ EFFECTS: INENG's developing rain bands continues to improve and re-

mains over the Philippine Sea - affecting only the shipping lanes.

+ CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Southwest (SW)

Monsoon enhanced by TS INENG located over the Philippine Sea - will

continue to bring mostly cloudy skies with intermittent rainfall &

SW'ly winds of 10 km/hr or higher across Western Philippines beco-

ming more frequent over Mindoro, Lubang Island, Western Visayas &

Northern Palawan. Landslides and flooding is likely to occur along

steep mountain slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas

of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 02 OCTOBER
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 16.7º N...LONGITUDE 131.3º E {MW Fix}
DISTANCE 1: 1,025 KM (553 NM) ESE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 2: 1,035 KM (560 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 3: 1,065 KM (575 NM) SE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 980 KM (528 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 5: 1,115 KM (602 NM) ENE OF METRO MANILA, PH

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 996 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: SE @ 07 KM/HR (04 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME TUE OCTOBER 02
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A

12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 02 OCTOBER: 16.5N 130.2E / 75-95 KPH / WNW @ 05 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 03 OCTOBER: 16.7N 129.7E / 85-100 KPH / NNW @ 07 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 04 OCTOBER: 18.4N 128.9E / 110-140 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 02 OCTOBER POSITION: 16.6N 130.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED IN THE LOW LEVELS

OVER THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. A STRONG BAND OF WESTERLIES SOUTH OF

THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE

SPIN-UP OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT

THE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE LLCC, LOWERING

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES...(more)
_____________________________________________________________________________

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS INENG (17W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm