Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon MORAKOT (KIKO)

for Wednesday, 05 August 2009 [7:00 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 04 2009):

T2K SMS Alerts currently offline due to major server problem...tech engineers are currently fixing the problem. Meanwhile, the other services (Web & Email) remains running - issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TS MORAKOT (KIKO).

MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

TYPHOON MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 008
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Wed 05 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JMA WARNING
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

MORAKOT (KIKO) intensifies and becomes the 5th Typhoon of the 2009 Western Pacific Season...still heading for Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands.

*Residents and visitors along Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to continue moving generally WNW-ward and will continue to strengthen as it approaches Okinawa-Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands. The 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system maintaining its Category 1 status upon passing south of Okinawa late tomorrow afternoon (Aug 6) and shall reach its peak winds of 175 kph (Category 2) while moving just north of Yaeyama Islands on Friday morning, Aug 7. It shall maintain its Category 2 strength before making landfall along the coast of Eastern China on Saturday afternoon, Aug 8th.

+ Effects: MORAKOT's broad circulation continues to improve and expand w/ the development of an eye feature while over the warm waters of the Northeastern Philippine Sea. The storm's outer bands is likely to reach Ryukyus Islands including Okinawa later tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 350 mm near the center of MORAKOT. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands tonight until tomorrow. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Taiwan and Eastern China.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Moderate to slightly strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, MINDORO, AND PARTS OF WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON-METRO MANILA-BICOL REGION.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Wed August 05 2009
Location of Eye: 23.0º N Lat 131.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 525 km (283 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,030 km (555 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 1,020 km (550 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 meters]
Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: WNW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
General Direction: Okinawa-Ryukyu-Yaeyama
Size (in Diameter): 1,045 km (565 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft (5.8 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Wed Aug 05
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Wed Aug 05
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Wed Aug 05
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 23.4N 130.2E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 24.1N 128.2E / 150-185 KPH / WNW @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 25.5N 123.9E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 27.0N 120.0E / 160-195 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 AUGUST POSITION: 22.8N 132.2E.
^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION CON-
SOLIDATING INTO THE CENTER OF A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION
ALONG WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, ALONG WITH VENTING INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TRO-
POSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE EAST, IS ALSO EVIDENT. A 050424Z
AMSU IMAGE SHOWS CURVED INFLOW LINES ON THE SURFACE
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ALONG WITH
DEEP CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUA-
DRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS CONTINUING TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON POSITION
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. INTENSITY IS BASED ON INTEN-
SITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN FAIR AGREE-
MENT WITH NOGAPS AND GFS BOTH LOSING THE CIRCULATION
AFTER 36 HOURS AND TRACKING ERRONEOUS ARTIFACTS TO THE
NORTHEAST BUT ALL OTHER AIDS CONTINUE THE SYSTEM INTO THE
MAINLAND OF CHINA...(more)

>> MORAKOT, meaning: Emerald. Name contributed by: Thailand.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 22.7N 131.8E / WEST @ 17 kph / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY MORAKOT (KIKO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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