Tuesday, August 04, 2009

TS GONI (JOLINA) - Update #010

 


for Tuesday, 04 August 2009 [3:34 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 04 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly advisories (except 12:00 AM) on Tropical Storm GONI (JOLINA).


GONI (JOLINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM GONI [JOLINA/08W/0907]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 010

2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT) Tue 04 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm GONI (JOLINA) gaining strength while heading north...approaching Hong Kong & Macau's Coast.

    *Residents and visitors along Southern China should closely monitor the progress of GONI (JOLINA).

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: GONI is expected to resume its WNW track prior to landfall and still intensify. It shall make landfall along Western Guangdong tomorrow afternoon. The system shall rapidly dissipate late tomorrow until Thursday.

    + Effects: GONI's circulation partially sheared, with most of its convective rainclouds displaced south of the low-level center. Rainfall accumulations of up to 200-300 mm can be expected along its southern rainband circulation. Its low-level rain bands is now affecting the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Hainan Island.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Mon August 03 2009
    Location of Center: 21.3º N Lat 113.9º E Lon
    Distance 1: 115 km (62 nm) SSE of Hong Kong
    Distance 2: 105 km (57 nm) SSW of Macau
    Distance 3: 350 km (190 nm) East of Zhanjiang, China
    Distance 4: 845 km (457 nm) WNW of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    75 kph (40 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 990 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
    General Direction: Macau-Hong Kong Area
    Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Tue Aug 04
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Tue Aug 04
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 21.8N 113.2E / 85-100 KPH / NW @ 05 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 22.2N 112.7E / 55-75 KPH / WNW @ 07 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 22.5N 111.9E / 35-55 KPH / ... @ .. KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 AUGUST POSITION: 20.1N 114.4E.
    ^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION AND CIRRUS OVER A
    PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). POSITION
    CONFIDENCE IS HIGH BASED ON RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM VHHH AND A
    PARTIALLY EXPOSED SATELLITE FIX POSITION FROM PGTW. THE SYSTEM
    CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUB-
    TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE PASSAGE OF A MID-
    LATITUDE TROUGH SLIGHTLY WEAKENED THE RIDGE ALLOWING 08W TO TRACK
    SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THAN ORIGINALLY
    EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING EXPOSED TO 20KTS OF VERTICAL
    WIND SHEAR THAT IS PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE WARM
    WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL FUEL MODERATE DEVELOPMENT UP TO
    45 KTS BEFORE LAND FALL IN SOUTHERN CHINA. OBJECTIVE AIDS ARE IN
    GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TCLAPS WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM
    TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE REST OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS TRACK THE
    SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST....
    (
    more)

    >> GONI, meaning: SwanName contributed by: Republic of Korea.

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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS GONI (JOLINA)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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