Thursday, August 06, 2009

Typhoon MORAKOT (KIKO) approaches Yaeyama Islands...[Update #011]

 


for Thursday, 06 August 2009 [6:37 PM PST]

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MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr

TYPHOON MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011

6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Thu 06 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #011
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Typhoon MORAKOT (KIKO) slowing down as it moves closer to the island chain of Yaeyama...currently no change in strength.

    *Residents and visitors along Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to continue tracking west for the next 18 hours and intensify - reaching Category 3 status w/ 185-kph winds as it passes very close to the south of Yaeyama Islands tomorrow morning. The 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system turning slightly WNW as it approaches the east coast of Northern Taiwan. The core (eye & eyewall) shall make landfall just north of the industrial city of Hualien in Taiwan by tomorrow evening and cross Northern Taiwan passing very close south of Metro Taipei on dawn of Saturday Aug 8 (approx 2-3AM). MORAKOT is forecast to traverse Taiwan Strait on Saturday afternoon and make its 2nd landfall over Southeastern China by Sunday afternoon, Aug 9 - passing close to the south of Fuzhou City (China). This typhoon shall rapidly dissipate on Monday Aug 9 while hovering along the mountainous terrain of mainland China.

    + Effects: MORAKOT's large circulation continues to track westward with the continued development of its cloud-filled eye while traversing the warm waters of the Northernmost Philippine Sea. The storm's outer (feeder) bands continues to spread across Okinawa and Taiwan...with its inner (rain) bands remaining over Yaeyama Islands - Increasing winds of not more than 100 kph w/ moderate to slightly heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands....and 30-60 kph gusty winds w/ occasional squalls along its outer bands. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along the storm's inner and outer bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of MORAKOT. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa-Ryukyu-Yaeyama Islands and Eastern Taiwan today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & SE China.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 65 kph with passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, WESTERN LUZON, VISAYAS, MINDORO, AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LUZON-BICOL REGION. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Thu August 06 2009
    Location of Eye: 23.2º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
    Distance 1: 400 km (215 nm) SSW of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 2: 495 km (267 nm) ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
    Distance 3: 525 km (283 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
    Distance 4: 545 km (295 nm) NE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 5: 785 km (425 nm) SE of Fuzhou, China
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    150 kph (80 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Category 1
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 meters]
    Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: West @ 19 kph (10 kts)
    General Direction: Yaeyama-Northern Taiwan Area
    Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.6 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Thu Aug 06
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    06Z Thu Aug 06
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Thu Aug 06
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

    PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
    Now In Effect: BATANES, BABUYAN & CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

    The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight and tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

    Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge that could reach a high of 1 to 3 feet.

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

    2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 23.3N 124.8E / 165-205 KPH (Category 2) / WNW @ 15 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 23.7N 123.2E / 185-230 KPH (Category 3) / WNW @ 19 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 25.4N 120.4E / 130-160 KPH (Category 2) / NW @ 05 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 26.0N 119.4E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NW @ 07 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST POSITION: 23.1N 126.9E.
    ^ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TY 09W HAS MAIN-
    TAINED A SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY
    CONSOLIDATED FEEDER BANDS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION ARE
    BASED FROM DVORAK FIXES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WITH A FAIR DEGREE
    OF CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY
    UNDER A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND
    SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS EXCELLENT DUAL
    OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE SYSTEM. THE TYPHOON IS BEING STEERED
    WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
    THE NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
    OVER 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDI-
    TIONS, TYPHOON MORAKOT IS EXPECTED TO PEAK INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT
    24 HOURS BEFORE IT CROSSES NORTHERN TAIWAN THEN MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
    FUZHOU, CHINA BY TAU 72. AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE ARE MOSTLY IN
    AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE OF OUTLIERS BRINGING THE
    SYSTEM NORTH OF TAIWAN...
    (
    more)

    >> MORAKOT, meaning: EmeraldName contributed by: Thailand.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 4 PM (08 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 23.3N 125.9E / WEST @ 22 kph / 140 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY MORAKOT (KIKO)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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