Wednesday, August 05, 2009

MORAKOT (KIKO) nears Typhoon strength... [Update #007]

 


for Wednesday, 05 August 2009 [12:59 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 04 2009):

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MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 007

12:00 PM PST (04:00 GMT) Wed 05 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #006
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm MORAKOT (KIKO) nears Typhoon strength as it drifts WNW slowly across the northernmost Philippine Sea.

    *Residents and visitors along Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to continue moving WNW and gaining strength into a Typhoon w/in the next 24 hours. The 4-day Medium-Range Forecast shows the system reaching its peak winds of 175 kph (Category 3) as it passes to the south of Okinawa tomorrow late afternoon (Aug 6). It shall maintain its strength before making landfall along the coast of Eastern China on Saturday Aug 8th.

    + Effects: MORAKOT's broad circulation continues to improve and expand w/ the development of an eye feature while over the warm waters of the Northeastern Philippine Sea. The storm's outer bands is likely to reach Ryukyus Islands including Okinawa later tonight. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 200 mm can be expected along the storm's rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 350 mm near the center of MORAKOT. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of up to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands today until tomorrow. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Taiwan and Eastern China.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: MODERATE >> Moderate to slightly strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 50 kph with passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, MINDORO, AND PARTS OF WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON-METRO MANILA-BICOL REGION.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 12:00 PM PST Wed August 05 2009
    Location of Center: 22.6º N Lat 132.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 635 km (342 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 2: 1,150 km (620 nm) ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
    Distance 3: 1,120 km (605 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    100 kph (55 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
    General Direction: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 1,250 km (675 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Wed Aug 05
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Wed Aug 05
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 11 AM Wed Aug 05
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

    8 PM (12 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 23.1N 131.0E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
  • 8 AM (00 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 23.7N 129.1E / 150-185 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 25.3N 124.7E / 175-215 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
    8 AM (00 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 26.7N 120.3E / 175-215 KPH / NW @ 13 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 05 AUGUST POSITION: 22.5N 132.9E.
    ^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (MORAKOT) CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD
    UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
    LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF TS 09W. AS THE STR HAS BUILT WESTWARD, TS 09W
    HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS TRACK AND SPEED OVER THE PAST 12
    HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING
    NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), EVIDENT IN A 042232Z
    SSMIS IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
    IS DEVELOPING AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
    TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTHEAST OF TS 09W. IN ADDITION TO THE SYSTEMS
    BROAD AND EXPANSIVE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST REMAINS
    FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...
    (
    more)

    >> MORAKOT, meaning: EmeraldName contributed by: Thailand.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 10 AM (02 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 22.8N 133.0E / WNW @ 13 kph / 95 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MORAKOT (KIKO)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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