Tuesday, August 04, 2009

TS MORAKOT (KIKO) - Update #003

 


for Tuesday, 04 August 2009 [6:41 AM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 04 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TS MORAKOT (KIKO).


MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 003

6:00 AM PST (22:00 GMT) Tue 04 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #001A
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • MORAKOT (KIKO) now a Tropical Storm as it slightly moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...drifting NNE...may re-enter PAR soon.

    *Residents and visitors along Ryukyu Islands, Southern Japan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to drift erratically north for the next 24 hours before turning NW to WNW and re-enter PAR tomorrow. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system heading WNW to Westward passing very close south of Okinawa early Friday morning (Aug 7) as a well developed Category 1 Typhoon. On early morning Aug 9, Sunday, MORAKOT shall make landfall along the east coast of Eastern China.

    + Effects: MORAKOT's broad circulation continues to organize over the Northeastern Philippine Sea. Rainfall accumulations of up to 200-300 mm can be expected within its circulation. Still no effects on major land areas is expected from this storm today.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 60 kph with passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN AND CENTRAL VISAYAS, MINDORO, SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, AND PARTS OF BICOL REGION. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 6:00 AM PST Tue August 04 2009
    Location of Center: 21.8º N Lat 136.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 1,470 km (795 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 2: 975 km (527 nm) ESE of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 3: 115 km (62 nm) East of P.A.R.
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: NNE @ 09 kph (05 kts)
    General Direction: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 AM PST Tue Aug 04
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    18Z Mon Aug 03
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 AM Tue Aug 04
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop 

    JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

    2 PM (06 GMT) 04 AUGUST: 21.9N 136.1E / 85-100 KPH / NNW @ 07 KPH
  • 2 AM (18 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 22.7N 135.8E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 24.5N 132.4E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
    2 AM (18 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 25.5N 128.6E / 130-160 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

    REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 04 AUGUST POSITION: 21.2N 135.9E.
    ^ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
    INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 030923Z QUIKSCAT PASS. TD 09W
    IS TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
    LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGING
    WILL BUILD TO THE WEST CAUSING THE SHIFT TO A WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND
    TAU 24. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL
    REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, UNTIL MAKING
    LANDFALL IN MAINLAND CHINA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
    EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
    LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TS 09W. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW IN THE
    VICINITY OF TS 09W....
    (
    more)

    >> MORAKOT, meaning: EmeraldName contributed by: Thailand.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
     
    > 2 AM (20 GMT) 04 AUGUST: 21.4N 134.8E / NNE @ 11 kph / 65 kph

    :: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at: 
       
    http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml   
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MORAKOT (KIKO)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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