Tuesday, August 04, 2009

TS MORAKOT (KIKO) - Update #004

 


for Tuesday, 04 August 2009 [3:00 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue August 04 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TS MORAKOT (KIKO).


MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004

2:00 PM PST (06:00 GMT) Tue 04 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC SATFIX
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

  • Tropical Storm MORAKOT (KIKO) turning back to its WNW track...about to re-enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) this afternoon.

    *Residents and visitors along Ryukyu Islands, Southern Japan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

    *Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.


    + Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to continue moving WNW across the northernmost Philippine Sea reaching Category 1 Typhoon late tomorrow or Thursday. The 2 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows the system continuing tracking WNW to Westward passing very close south of Okinawa Friday morning (Aug 7). On early morning Aug 9, Sunday, MORAKOT shall make landfall along the coast of Eastern China.

    + Effects: MORAKOT's broad circulation continues to become better organized while over the warm waters of the Northeastern Philippine Sea. Rainfall accumulations of up to 200-300 mm can be expected within its circulation. MORAKOT is not yet affecting any major Western Pacific Islands.

    + Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 60 kph with passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: PALAWAN, WESTERN AND CENTRAL VISAYAS, MINDORO, SOUTHERN LUZON, METRO MANILA, AND PARTS OF BICOL REGION. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!] 
    Time/Date: 2:00 PM PST Tue August 04 2009
    Location of Center: 22.4º N Lat 135.1º E Lon
    Distance 1: 1,380 km (745 nm) ENE of Basco, Batanes
    Distance 2: 850 km (458 nm) SE of Okinawa, Japan
    Distance 3: 10 km (05 nm) East of P.A.R.
    MaxWinds (1-min avg):
    65 kph (35 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph (45 kts)
    Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-3 feet [0-0.9 m]
    Central Pressure: 992 millibars (hPa)
    Recent Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
    General Direction: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
    Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft (4.2 m)
    Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8 AM PST Tue Aug 04
    JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap:
    00Z Tue Aug 04
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 2 PM Tue Aug 04
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs lead
    Zoomed Satellite Pic:
    Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

  • JTWC 12, 24, 48, & 72 HR. FORECAST:

    2 AM (12 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 23.4N 133.8E / 95-120 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
  • 2 PM (06 GMT) 05 AUGUST: 24.3N 132.2E / 100-130 KPH / WNW @ 17 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 06 AUGUST: 25.6N 128.2E / 130-160 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH
    2 PM (06 GMT) 07 AUGUST: 26.8N 124.1E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 19 KPH

    REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 04 AUGUST POSITION: 21.8N 136.2E.
    ^ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
    INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WELL DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 030923Z QUIKSCAT PASS. TD 09W
    IS TRACKING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE
    LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGING
    WILL BUILD TO THE WEST CAUSING THE SHIFT TO A WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND
    TAU 24. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL
    REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD HELPING TO ENHANCE THE
    DEVELOPMENT OF THE LLCC THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, UNTIL MAKING
    LANDFALL IN MAINLAND CHINA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG
    EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE
    LOCATED TO THE EAST OF TS 09W. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW IN THE
    VICINITY OF TS 09W...
    (
    more)

    >> MORAKOT, meaning: EmeraldName contributed by: Thailand.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    NOTE:
     
      ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TS MORAKOT (KIKO)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
    http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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