Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MORAKOT (KIKO)

for Saturday, 08 August 2009 [5:50 PM PST]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu August 06 2009):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates (except 12:00 AM) on TYPHOON MORAKOT (KIKO).

MORAKOT (KIKO) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr

TROPICAL STORM MORAKOT [KIKO/09W/0908]
T2K E-MAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 015
6:00 PM PST (10:00 GMT) Sat 08 August 2009
Source: T2K ANALYSIS / JTWC WARNING #019
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2009)

Tropical Storm MORAKOT (KIKO) drifting slowly NNW along the NW Coast of Taiwan or over Taiwan Strait...continues to lose strength due to the terrain interaction in Taiwan.

*Residents and visitors along Southeastern & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MORAKOT.

*Kindly refer to your local warnings & bulletins issued by your country's official weather agency. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only.

+ Forecast Outlook: MORAKOT is expected to re-intensify slightly later tonight as it traverses the Taiwan Strait. Due to its sudden slow movement, the projected landfall over Fujian Province is expected tomorrow afternoon. MORAKOT shall dissipate Monday as it moves further inland over China.

+ Effects: MORAKOT's weakening circulation continues to affect SE China and Taiwan. The storm's inner (rain) bands spreading across much of Taiwan Strait, Taiwan, Yaeyama Islands and Fujian Province, China...with its outer (feeder) bands over rest of SE China and Extreme Northern Luzon and the Ryukyu-Okinawa Islands. Widespread rains w/ violent winds of not more than 100 kph can be expected near its center...while violent winds of 60-80 kph w/ moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands. On the outer bands, moderate to strong winds of 30-60 kph w/ occasional rains, squalls can be expected. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 100 up to 300 mm can be expected along the storm's inner and outer bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 500 mm near the center of MORAKOT and along mountain slopes on where the core is expected to pass. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Taiwan and Southeastern China today. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern & SE China.

+ Current SW Monsoon Intensity: STRONG >> Moderate to strong southwesterly winds not in excess of 65 kph with some few passing occasional showers or rains can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL & NORTHERN LUZON. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PST Sat August 08 2009
Location of Center: 24.8º N Lat 120.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km (57 nm) WSW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 2: 195 km (105 nm) SE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 3: 500 km (270 nm) NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Saffir-Simpson Scale: Tropical Storm
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 1-3 feet [0.3-0.9 meters]
Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Recent Movement: NNW @ 04 kph (02 kts)
General Direction: Fujian Province, China
Size (in Diameter): 1,295 km (700 nm) / Very Large
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 ft (7.62 m)
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PST Sat Aug 08
JTWC Ship Avoidance TrackMap: 06Z Sat Aug 08
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Sat Aug 08
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs lead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: BATANES-BABUYAN-CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge that could reach a high of 1 to 3 feet.

JTWC 12, 24, & 36 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 AM (18 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 25.5N 120.3E / 95-120 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNW @ 09 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 09 AUGUST: 26.4N 119.8E / 85-100 KPH (Tropical Storm) / NNW @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 AUGUST: 27.6N 119.0E / 35-55 KPH (Tropical Disturbance / LPA) / .. @ .. KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 08 AUGUST POSITION: 24.8N 120.7E.
^RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A DRAMATIC DROP IN THE
CENTRAL CONVECTION FOR 09W AS IT MOVES OFF TAIWAN AND BACK OVER
WATER. THE CENTER HAS LOST A LOT OF STRUCTURE PASSING OVER LAND, BUT
WINDS REMAIN HIGH AS EVIDENT IN A 080203Z ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWS
UNFLAGGED 40 TO 45KT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING IS STILL EVIDENT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM,
ALONG WITH STRONG EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR,
AS THE CENTER IS ILL DEFINED, AND POSITION IS BASED ON FIXES FROM
RJTD AND PGTW. TRACK IS BASED ON A GOOD OBJECTIVE AIDS PACKAGE.
AGREEMENT IS STRONG THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT THE MODELS EXHIBIT A FAIR
DEGREE OF SPREAD AFTER THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL IN EASTERN CHINA
WITH DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHERE THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL WILL TRACK. THE
FIRST SOLUTION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND, AND THE SECOND SOLUTION IS FOR THE LOW TO
RECURVE AND BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE FIRST SOLUTION....(more)

>> MORAKOT, meaning: Emerald. Name contributed by: Thailand.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) 08 AUGUST: 24.9N 120.5E / NW @ 9 kph / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTE:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS MORAKOT (KIKO/09W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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