Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) Update #016

for Saturday, 13 July 2013 [8:03 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SOULIK (HUANING) UPDATE NUMBER 016
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 13 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sunday 14 July 2013

Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) has made its final landfall over Southeastern China or in the vicinity of Fuzhou City in Fujian Province...decaying eyewall bringing typhoon-force winds with heavy rains across the area. Gradual dissipation of this system will be expected within the next 24 hours.

Residents and visitors along Southeastern China should closely monitor the development of Soulik (Huaning).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 pm today, the center of Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) was located over Fujian Province in Southeastern China...about 10 km east of Fuzhou City, China or 250 km northwest of Taipei, Taiwan...currently moving west-northwest with a decreased forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Jiangxi Province.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 370 kilometers. Soulik (Huaning) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (Huaning) is estimated to be heavy (370 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) is expected to continue moving west-northwest to northwest during the next 12 hours...turning north-northwest between 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Soulik (Huaning) will traverse the northern part of Fujian Province tonight...and will be along the Jiangxi-Zhejiang border Sunday afternoon and evening.

Soulik (Huaning) will be downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) later tonight. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the system dissipating into a Tropical Depression (TD) on Sunday evening.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens into a TD as it moves along the Jiangxi-Zhejiang border in China...about 465 km west-southwest of Shanghai, China [6PM JULY 14: 30.6N 116.6E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

ERODED EYE - over Fuzhou City, China and the East Coast of Fujian Province. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: East coast of Fujian Province and Fuzhou City (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Fujian Province and Taiwan Strait.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The rest of Southeastern & Southern China, The rest of Taiwan including Yaeyama & Miyako Islands, and the northern part of the South China Sea. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 370 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Soulik (Huaning).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western and Northwestern Taiwan and Southeastern China especially Fujian Province today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern and Eastern China, Yaeyama-Miyako-Ryukyu Islands, and Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes-Babuyan-Calayan Islands (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat July 13, 2013
Class/Name: TY Soulik (Huaning)
Location of Eye: 26.1º N Lat 119.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 10 km E of Fuzhou, China
Distance 2: 220 km NE of Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 245 km SW of Wenzhou, China
Distance 4: 250 km NW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 320 km NW of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 6: 400 km NNW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 640 km NNW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 8: 675 km NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Jiangxi-Zhejiang Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [370 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 925 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SOULIK (HUANING)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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