Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS RUMBIA (GORIO) Update #010

for Monday, 01 July 2013 [8:06 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM RUMBIA (GORIO) UPDATE NUMBER 010
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Monday 01 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 01 July 2013

Tropical Storm RUMBIA (GORIO) has left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) early this morning...moving very fast towards Southern China. Its rainbands no longer affecting the Philippines.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Spratly Islands today.

Residents and visitors along Southern China particularly Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 am today, the center of TS Rumbia (Gorio) was located over South China Sea...about 451 km south of Hong Kong or 476 km east-southeast of Qionghai, Hainan Island...currently moving west-northwest with an accelerated forward speed of 35 km/hr in the general direction of Western Guangdong (Southern China).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 85 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers from the center. Rumbia (Gorio) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to continue turn northwestward during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will be approaching the coast of Western Guangdong tonight...and will make its final landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China, just west of Zhanjiang City on Tuesday early morning...and will continue to move across China Mainland throughout the day.

Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to weaken within the next 24 hours due to effects of land interaction.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY MORNING: Starts to dissipate as it moves over land across Western Guangdong (Southern China)...about 80 km north of Zhanjiang City [5AM JULY 02: 22.0N 110.5E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - over water (South China Sea). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-95 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the coastal areas of Southern China. Affected Areas: Coastal Western Guangdong and Eastern Hainan. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon July 01, 2013
Class/Name: TS Rumbia (Gorio)
Location of Center: 18.2º N Lat 114.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 451 km S of Hong Kong
Distance 2: 465 km SSE of Macau
Distance 3: 476 km ESE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 4: 518 km ESE of Haikou, Hainan Is.
Distance 5: 583 km SE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 6: 602 km W of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 35 kph
Towards: Western Guangdong
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 11 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS RUMBIA (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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