Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) Update #011

for Friday, 12 July 2013 [8:03 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SOULIK (HUANING) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Friday 12 July 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Friday 12 July 2013

Powerful Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) moving west closer to Yaeyama Islands...will pass south of Ishigaki City this afternoon. Inner rainbands with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 km/hr) approaching Yaeyama and Miyako Islands.

Residents and visitors along Batanes Group of Islands, Taiwan, Yaeyama and Miyako Islands should closely monitor the development of Soulik (Huaning).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 am today, the eye of Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) was located over the northermost part of the Philippine Sea...about 300 km southeast of Ishigaki City or 500 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving west with a forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Taiwan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 175 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 340 kilometers. Soulik (Huaning) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (Huaning) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) is expected to move towards the west-northwest during the next 24 hours...turning northwest to north-northwest between 24 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Soulik (Huaning) will pass to the south of Yaeyama Islands late this afternoon...and will make landfall along the Northern Taiwan - very close to the north of Hualien City after midnight on Saturday (approx 2-3am). By Saturday noon, the typhoon will be emerging over the Taiwan Strait and will make its final landfall over Fujian Province, just in the vicinity of Fuzhou City, China on late Saturday afternoon or evening. Throughout Sunday, the cyclone will be moving along the rugged terrain of China or along the Fujian-Zhejiang-Jiangxi border.

Soulik (Huaning) will likely to re-intensify back to Category 3 within the next 12 hours prior in making landfall over Northern Taiwan. Advance intensity forecast shows the system starting to weaken as it passes over Northern Taiwan on Saturday morning and will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) while over mainland China on Sunday due to the frictional effects of land...and dry air entering the system.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY MORNING: Over Northwestern Taiwan...about 65 km southwest of Taipei, Taiwan [6AM JULY 13: 24.6N 121.1E @ 195kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Weakens to a TS...rapidly dissipating over Mainland China...about 415 km west-northwest of Wenzhou, China [6AM JULY 14: 28.5N 116.5E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLEDD EYE - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: None. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: None. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean/Northernmost Philippine Sea) and some smaller islands. Affected Areas: The islands of Yaeyama incl. Ishigaki. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea) and smaller islands, some landmass. -- Affected Areas: Eastern Taiwan, and the islands of Miyako and Ryukyus incl. Okinawa. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Soulik (Huaning).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Yaeyama and Miyako Islands and Taiwan today until Saturday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southeastern China, Ryukyu and Okinawa Islands, and Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes-Babuyan-Calayan Islands (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu July 11, 2013
Class/Name: TY Soulik (Huaning)
Location of Eye: 22.6º N Lat 126.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 300 km SE of Ishigaki City
Distance 2: 425 km SSW of Naha Intl. Airport, Okinawa
Distance 3: 450 km SSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 4: 500 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 505 km ENE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 6: 505 km ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 7: 545 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 8: 810 km SE of Fuzhou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph
Present Movement: West @ 22 kph
Towards: Yaeyama Is.-Northern Taiwan Area
CPA [ETA] to Northern Taiwan: Sat Morning [2-7AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 835 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SOULIK (HUANING)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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