Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS CIMARON (ISANG) Update #005

for Wednesday, 17 July 2013 [3:16 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (ISANG) UPDATE NUMBER 005
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Wednesday 17 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 17 July 2013

08W (ISANG) has passed over Santa Ana, Cagayan this morning and quickly emerged over the Balintang Channel, very near the island of Calayan...and strengthened into a Tropical Storm, internationally named as "CIMARON" - a Philippine-endangered water buffalo.

This storm will slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across Western Luzon incl. Metro Manila, MiMaRoPa, Sulu Sea, and Western Panay today. Flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along mountain slopes.

Residents and visitors along Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Southern and Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of Cimaron (Isang).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 12:00 noon today, the center of TS Cimaron (Isang) was located over the Balintang Channel...about 15 km southeast of Calayan Island, Cagayan or 95 km NW of Santa Ana, Cagayan...currently moving northwest with an increased forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of Southern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 65 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Cimaron (Isang) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 250 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Cimaron (Isang) is estimated to be heavy (200 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Cimaron (Isang) is expected to continue moving northwest to north-northwest during the next 12 to 24 hours...turning north to north-northeast between 24 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Cimaron (Isang) will pass to the west of Taiwan on Thursday....and make landfall along Fujian Province on Friday early morning...and over Jiangsu Province on Saturday.

Cimaron (Isang) will slightly intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the system reaching winds of about 75 km/hr on Thursday morning...maintaining this strength before making landfall over Southeastern China on Friday...and dissipating into an area of low pressure on Saturday.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY NOON: Continues to intensify as it moves across the South China Seae Sea, west of Taiwan...about 135 km west of Kaohsiung, Taiwan [12PM JULY 18: 22.5N 119.0E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY NOON: Landfall over Fujian Province, Southeastern China...weakens to a TD...about 125 km northwest of Fuzhou, China [12PM JULY 19: 26.6N 118.2E @ 55kph].
SATURDAY NOON: Dissipating over land...or along Jiangsu Province, Eastern China...just an area of low pressure...about 225 km west-southwest of Shanghai, China [12PM JULY 20: 29.6N 117.4E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Balintang Channel, coastal areas of Ilocos Norte and Cagayan, and Calayan Group of Islands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Cagayan, Isabela, the islands of Calayan-Babuyan-Batanes, Ilocos Provinces, Aurora, Quirino, Kalinga, and Apayao. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of 08W (Isang).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Wed July 17, 2013
Class/Name: TS Cimaron (Isang)
Location of Center: 19.2º N Lat 121.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 15 km SE of Calayan Island
Distance 2: 90 km N of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 95 km NW of Santa Ana, Cagayan
Distance 4: 150 km SSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 155 km NE of Laoag City
Distance 6: 165 km N of Tuguegarao City
Distance 7: 225 km NNW of Ilagan City
Distance 8: 535 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 65 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 85 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 28 kph
Towards: Southern China
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [200 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 250 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 13 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS CIMARON (ISANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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