Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) Update #013

for Friday, 12 July 2013 [8:15 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SOULIK (HUANING) UPDATE NUMBER 013
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Friday 12 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Saturday 13 July 2013

Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) has weakened slightly while passing close to the south of Ishigaki City...landfall over Northeastern Taiwan expected on or before sunrise tomorrow.

Residents and visitors along Batanes Group of Islands, Taiwan, and Yaeyama Islands should closely monitor the development of Soulik (Huaning).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 pm today, the eye of Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) was located over the northernmost part of the Philippine Sea...about 125 km south of Ishigaki City or 410 km northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Northeastern Taiwan.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 165 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 325 kilometers. Soulik (Huaning) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 905 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (Huaning) is estimated to be heavy (300 mm).

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) is expected to continue moving west-northwest during the next 12 hours...turning northwest to north-northwest between 12 to 48 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Soulik (Huaning) will be approaching the northeastern coast of Taiwan tonight...and will make landfall along Northern Taiwan - just north of Hualien City on or before sunrise on Saturday (approx 4-6am). By Saturday noon, the typhoon will be over the Taiwan Strait and will make its final landfall over Fujian Province or in the vicinity of Fuzhou City, China on Saturday evening. By Sunday evening, the cyclone will be moving along the rugged terrain of China or along the Fujian-Zhejiang-Jiangxi border.

Soulik (Huaning) will just maintain its strength prior in making landfall over Northern Taiwan. Advance intensity forecast shows the system starting to gradually weaken as it passes over Northern Taiwan on Saturday morning and will be downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) while over mainland China on Sunday afternoon due to the frictional effects of land with dry air entering the system.

The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:

SATURDAY EVENING: Makes landfall over Fuzhou Province (Southeastern China)...weakens to Category 1...about 15 km southeast of Fuzhou, China [6PM JULY 13: 26.0N 119.4E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens to a TD...rapidly dissipating over Mainland China...about 465 km west-southwest of Shanghai, China [6PM JULY 14: 30.5N 116.6E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: None. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea). Affected Areas: None. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea) and some smaller islands. Affected Areas: Coastal areas of Eastern Taiwan and the islands of Yaeyama incl. Ishigaki and Miyako. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Northernmost Philippine Sea), smaller islands, and landmass. -- Affected Areas: Rest of Taiwan, and the islands of Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan-Ryukyus incl. Okinawa. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 300 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Soulik (Huaning).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Yaeyama and Miyako Islands and Taiwan tonight until Saturday. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southeastern China, Ryukyu and Okinawa Islands, and Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes-Babuyan-Calayan Islands (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri July 12, 2013
Class/Name: TY Soulik (Huaning)
Location of Eye: 23.5º N Lat 124.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 125 km S of Ishigaki City
Distance 2: 270 km ESE of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 3: 310 km SE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 390 km NE of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 410 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 495 km SW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 7: 410 km ENE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 8: 575 km ESE of Fuzhou, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph
Towards: Northeastern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Northern Taiwan: Sat Morning [5-8AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [300 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 905 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 43 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft (1.8-2.6 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SOULIK (HUANING)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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