Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS CIMARON (ISANG) Update #007

for Thursday, 18 July 2013 [8:40 AM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (ISANG) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 18 July 2013
Next Update: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Thursday 18 July 2013

Tropical Storm CIMARON (ISANG) has moved out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it slightly intensified while moving closer to Eastern Guangdong in Southern China.

Residents and visitors along Southern and Southeastern China and Taiwan should closely monitor the development of Cimaron (Isang).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 am today, the center of TS Cimaron (Isang) was located over the northern part of the South China Sea...about 250 km southeast of Shantou City, China or 465 km northwest of Laoag City, Ilocos Norte...currently moving northwest with a decreased forward speed of 22 km/hr in the general direction of Eastern Guangdong.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 75 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 75 kilometers from the center. Cimaron (Isang) is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Cimaron (Isang) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Cimaron (Isang) is expected to continue moving northwest throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Cimaron (Isang) will reach the coast of Eastern Guangdong later this evening. By Friday evening, Cimaron (Isang) will be over the southern part of Jiangxi Province in Southern China.

Cimaron (Isang) will maintain its strength within the next 12 hours. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the system gradually weakening into a 55-km/hr TD as it makes landfall over Eastern Guangdong tonight...and dissipating into an area of low pressure on Friday.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

FRIDAY MORNING: Just an area of low pressure moving across Mainland China...about 345 km west-northwest of Xiamen, China [6AM JULY 19: 25.3N 114.8E @ 35kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-85 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: None.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The islands of Batanes and Southern Taiwan. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas to the east and near the center of Cimaron (Isang).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu July 18, 2013
Class/Name: TS Cimaron (Isang)
Location of Center: 21.6º N Lat 118.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 250 km SE of Shantou, China
Distance 2: 260 km WSW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 3: 400 km ESE of Hong Kong
Distance 4: 405 km WNW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 425 km WNW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 6: 465 km NW of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 22 kph
Towards: Eastern Guangdong
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft (0 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

_____________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS CIMARON (ISANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

__________________________________________________________________________________________

<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K TYPHOON to
2800 (Globe/TM) | Offline (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation

__._,_.___

Reply via web post

Reply to sender

Reply to group

Start a New Topic

Messages in this topic (1)

Recent Activity: