Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) Update #007

for Wednesday, 10 July 2013 [9:00 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SOULIK (HUANING) UPDATE NUMBER 007
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Wednesday 10 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Thursday 11 July 2013

Powerful Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) has maintained it strength for the past 6 hours as it continues to move towards Taiwan and the Yaeyama-Miyako Islands increasing its threat to these areas.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Yaeyama and Miyako Islands, Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of Soulik (Huaning).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 6:00 PM today, the eye of Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) was located over the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean...about 825 km southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa or 1,260 km east-northeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving west-northwest with a forward speed of 19 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Taiwan-Yaeyama Islands Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to 230 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers. Soulik (Huaning) remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (Huaning) is estimated to be extreme (400 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) will continue to move in a west-northwest track during the next 24 to 48 hours...turning northwesterly through 72 hours. On the forecast track, the dangerous core of Soulik (Huaning) will pass close to the south of Yaeyama Islands Friday afternoon...and make landfall along Northern Taiwan, passing over or very close to Taipei early Saturday morning. On Saturday late afternoon, the typhoon will be making its last landfall over Fujian Province, just to the southeast of Fuzhou City, China.

Soulik (Huaning) will likely intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours, becoming a Super Typhoon tomorrow. Advance intensity forecast shows the system starting to weaken as it approaches Northern Taiwan and Fujian Province on Friday evening through Saturday evening.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EVENING: Becomes a Super Typhoon while moving across the northernmost part of the Philippine Sea...about 455 km south-southeast of Naha International Airport, Okinawa [6PM JULY 11: 22.3N 129.1E @ 240kph].
FRIDAY EVENING: Starts to weaken as it passes close to the south of Yaeyama Islands...about 90 km south-southwest of Ishigaki City [6PM JULY 12: 23.7N 124.1E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Over Fujian Province in Southeastern China...weakens to Category 1 as it turns to the NW...about 15 km northwest of Fuzhou, China [6PM JULY 13: 26.2N 119.2E @ 140kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

55-KM ROUND EYE - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 400 mm (heavy to extreme) along areas near the center of Soulik (Huaning).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed July 10, 2013
Class/Name: TY Soulik (Huaning)
Location of Eye: 21.6º N Lat 134.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 815 km WSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 825 km SE of Naha Intl. Airport, Okinawa
Distance 3: 840 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 4: 840 km SE of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 5: 1,050 km ESE of Ishigaki City
Distance 6: 1,260 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,265 km E of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 8: 1,310 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 230 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 280 kph
Present Movement: WNW @ 19 kph
Towards: Northern Taiwan-Yaeyama Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Extreme [400 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 929 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 890 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft (4-5.5 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SOULIK (HUANING)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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