Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS SOULIK (07W) Update #002

for Monday, 08 July 2013 [9:10 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TROPICAL STORM SOULIK (07W) UPDATE NUMBER 002
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 08 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 09 July 2013

07W has intensified rapidly into a strong Tropical Storm now internationally named as "SOULIK" - a traditional chief's title in the Micronesian island of Pohnpei...moving quickly to the west, away from the northernmost part of the Marianas.

Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Ishigakijima, Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands should closely monitor the development of Soulik (07W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TS Soulik (07W) was located over the open seas of the Western Pacific Ocean...about 267 km west-northwest of Agrihan Island or 2,211 km east-southeast of Basco, Batanes...currently moving west with an accelerated forward speed of 35 km/hr in the general direction of Taiwan-Ishigakijima Area.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 95 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 65 kilometers from the center. Soulik (07W) is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 720 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (07W) is estimated to be heavy (310 mm).

3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TS Soulik (07W) is expected to move west-northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, the core of Soulik (07W) will enter the northeastern border of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Wednesday afternoon...and will be approaching the Ishigakijima and Yaeyama Island Chain on Thursday evening.

Soulik (07W) will continue to gradually intensify within the next 12 to 24 hours, becoming a well-developed Typhoon on Tuesday. Advance intensity forecast shows the system reaching wind speeds of 165 km/hr or more on Thursday evening.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EVENING: Becomes a Typhoon as it approaches the PAR on west-northwest track...about 1,335 km southeast of Okinawa, Japan [5PM JULY 09: 20.0N 138.8E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Continues to gain strength as it moves inside the PAR...about 862 km southeast of Okinawa, Japan [5PM JULY 10: 21.3N 134.1E @ 150kph].
THURSDAY EVENING: Moving closer to the Yaeyama and Ishigakijima Islands, still intensifying...about 415 km south-southeast of Okinawa, Japan [5PM JULY 11: 22.9N 128.9E @ 165kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DEVELOPING EYE - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Near-Typhoon Conditions with Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean). Affected Areas: None. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 201 to 310 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Soulik (07W).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon July 08, 2013
Class/Name: TS Soulik (07W)
Location of Center: 19.1º N Lat 143.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 267 km WNW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 2: 514 km NW of Saipan, CNMI
Distance 3: 659 km NNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 4: 660 km SSE of Iwo To
Distance 5: 851 km E of P.A.R.
Distance 6: 1,769 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 7: 2,211 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 2,307 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph
Present Movement: West @ 35 kph
Towards: Taiwan-Ishigakijima Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [310 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 720 km [Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft (0.3-0.9 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS SOULIK (07W)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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