Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon RUMBIA (GORIO) Update #011

for Monday, 01 July 2013 [11:43 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON RUMBIA (GORIO) UPDATE NUMBER 011
Issued: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Monday 01 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tuesday 02 July 2013

RUMBIA (GORIO) has rapidly strengthened into a Typhoon as it approaches the northern part of Hainan Island. Strong winds and rains now affecting the east coast of the island.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Hanging Habagat) and bring windy/cloudy conditions with occasionally slight to moderate to sometimes heavy rains and thunderstorms across parts of Vietnam tonight.

Residents and visitors along Northern Vietnam, Southern China particularly Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the development of RUMBIA (GORIO).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 5:00 pm today, the center of TY Rumbia (Gorio) was located over South China Sea or near the east coast of Hainan Island...about 151 km east-southeast of Haikou, Hainan or 236 km southeast of Zhanjiang City, China...currently moving northwest with a decreased forward speed of 30 km/hr in the general direction of Northern Hainan and Western Guangdong (Southern China).

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to 120 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 55 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-95 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers. Rumbia (Gorio) remains an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 620 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Rumbia (Gorio) is estimated to be heavy (220 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Rumbia (Gorio) is expected to continue moving northwestward during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Rumbia (Gorio) will be passing over or very near Northern Hainan tonight...and will make its final landfall over Western Guangdong in Southern China, over or very close to Zhanjiang City on Tuesday early morning...and will continue to move across China Mainland throughout Tuesday.

Rumbia (Gorio) is forecast to gradually weaken within the next 24 hours due to effects of land interaction and unfavorable upper-level winds.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

TUESDAY EVENING: Starts to weaken rapidly and dissipate as it moves across the mountains of Southern China...about 326 km north-northwest of Zhanjiang City [5PM JULY 02: 23.5N 108.4E @ 75kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (approaching the northeastern part of Hainan). Affected Areas: None. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - near the East Coast of Hainan Island. Affected Areas: None. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading across the coastal areas of Western Guangdong (especially those areas near Hainan Island). Affected Areas: Hainan Island. Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-118 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading across the South China Sea and Southern China. Affected Areas: Rest of Guangdong Province. Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 220 mm (heavy) along areas to the west, north and near the center of Rumbia (Gorio).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western Guangdong and Hainan Island tonight until Tuesday. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern China and Vietnam (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon July 01, 2013
Class/Name: TY Rumbia (Gorio)
Location of Eye: 19.5º N Lat 111.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 130 km ENE of Qionghai, Hainan Is.
Distance 2: 151 km ESE of Haikou, Hainan Is.
Distance 3: 236 km SE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 4: 359 km SSW of Macau
Distance 5: 405 km SW of Hong Kong
Distance 6: 445 km SE of Mong Cai, Vietnam
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: NW @ 30 kph
Towards: Northern Hainan-Western Guangdong Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [220 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 620 km [Average]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY RUMBIA (GORIO)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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