Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) Update #015

for Saturday, 13 July 2013 [1:20 PM PhT]

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON SOULIK (HUANING) UPDATE NUMBER 015
Issued: 1:00 PM PhT (05:00 GMT) Saturday 13 July 2013
Next Update: 7:00 PM PhT (11:00 GMT) Saturday 13 July 2013

Typhoon SOULIK (HUANING) has left the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it weakened further while moving across Taiwan Strait...away from Northern Taiwan. This system will make its final landfall over Fujian Province in Southeastern China late this afternoon or evening.

Residents and visitors along Southeastern China should closely monitor the development of Soulik (Huaning).

Do not use this for life or death decisions. This update is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your national weather agency for official warnings, advisories or bulletins.

CURRENT STORM ANALYSIS

As of 12:00 noon today, the eye of Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) was located over Taiwan Strait...about 145 km west-northwest of Taipei, Taiwan or 120 km east-southeast of Fuzhou, China...currently moving northwest with a decreased forward speed of 28 km/hr in the general direction of Fujian Province, Southeastern China.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 130 km/hr near the center with higher gusts. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 85 kilometers from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 325 kilometers. Soulik (Huaning) is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,305 kilometers across. The 24-hour rainfall accumulation near the center of Soulik (Huaning) is estimated to be heavy (330 mm).

1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

Typhoon Soulik (Huaning) is expected to continue moving northwest during the next 12 hours...turning north-northwest between 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the core of Soulik (Huaning) will make landfall along Fujian Province, passing close to the northeast of Fuzhou City, China this early evening. On Sunday noon, the cyclone will be moving along the rugged terrain of mainland China, near the Fujian-Zhejiang-Jiangxi border.

Soulik (Huaning) will continue to weaken upon its final landfall over Fujian Province in Southeastern China later today...and could be downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS). Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows the system starting to gradually weaken as it moves over land across mainland China on Sunday morning...and will be just a Tropical Depression (TD) on Sunday afternoon.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

SUNDAY NOON: Weakens into a TD as it moves across Mainland China...about 345 km northwest of Wenzhou, China [12PM JULY 14: 29.3N 117.5E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas. You can also view this image link for you to understand the parts.

DECAYING EYE - over water (Taiwan Strait)...approaching the coast of Fujian Province, China. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - where Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall. Affected Areas: Coastal & Beachfront Areas of Fujian Province, China. (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Storm Conditions with Tropical Storm Force Winds (63-117 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: Northern & Western Taiwan.
OUTER RAINBANDS - where Tropical Depression Conditions with light, moderate to strong winds (30-62 kph) will be expected. Affected Areas: The rest of Southeastern China and the eastern porions of Southern China, The rest of Taiwan including Yaeyama & Miyako Islands. (click here to know more about Rainbands)
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (slight to heavy rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 330 mm (heavy) along areas near the center of Soulik (Huaning).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Western and Northwestern Taiwan and Southeastern China especially Fujian Province today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the rest of the beach-front areas of Southern and Eastern China, Yaeyama-Miyako-Ryukyu Islands, and Extreme Northern Luzon including Batanes-Babuyan-Calayan Islands (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects and hazards summary changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

CURRENT TECHNICAL INFORMATION

Time/Date: 12:00 NN PhT Sat July 13, 2013
Class/Name: TY Soulik (Huaning)
Location of Eye: 25.7º N Lat 120.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 120 km ESE of Fuzhou, China
Distance 2: 145 km WNW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 3: 225 km NW of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 4: 255 km S of Wenzhou, China
Distance 5: 265 km NE of Xiamen, China
Distance 6: 345 km N of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 7: 565 km NNW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 8: 600 km NNW of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph
Present Movement: NW @ 28 kph
Towards: Fujian Province, China
CPA [ETA] to Fujian Province: Sat Afternoon [5-6PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): Heavy [330 mm]
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Size (in Diameter): 1,305 km [Very Large]
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 25 feet
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft (1.2-1.7 m)
T2K/WP StormTracks (for Public): GIF | Google Map (Flash)

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 SATELLITE ANIMATION:

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CURRENT NOAA/MTSAT-2 INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGE:

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CURRENT TRACKING MAP:

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NOTE:

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY SOULIK (HUANING)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm

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