Friday, July 16, 2010

Typhoon CONSON (BASYANG) - Update #16

 


for Friday, 16 July 2010 [6:14 PM HKT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Fri July 16 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on TY CONSON (BASYANG).


CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph

TYPHOON CONSON [BASYANG/03W/1002]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 016

6:00 PM HKT (10:00 GMT) Fri 16 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #020
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • Typhoon CONSON (BASYANG) now passing close to the resort city of Sanya in Southern Hainan. High winds w/ moderate to heavy rains now being felt across the area.

    *Residents and visitors along Hainan Island, Gulf of Tonkin, Northern Vietnam & Southern China should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM HKT Fri Jul 16 2010
    Location of Eye: 17.7º N Lat 109.6º E Lon
    Distance 1: 55 km (30 nm) SSW of Sanya, Hainan
    Distance 2: 180 km (97 nm) SSE of Dongfang, Hainan
    Distance 3: 200 km (108 nm) South of Danzhou, Hainan
    Distance 4: 250 km (135 nm) NE of Hue, Vietnam
    Distance 5: 540 km (290 nm) SE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 245 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Present Movement: West @ 17 kph (09 kts)
    Towards: Hainan-Gulf Of Tonkin Area
    Size (in Diameter): 740 km (400 nm) / Large
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 PM HKT Fri Jul 16

    + Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to pass near the Resort City of Sanya in the next few hours and cross the Gulf of Tonkin tomorrow [2AM JUL 17: 18.7N 108.5E-120kph...2PM JUL 17: 19.8N 107.0E-110kph]. The 2-Day Short-Range Forecast shows the system making its final landfall along the coast of Northern Vietnam tomorrow night. CONSON shall pass very close to Hanoi, Vietnam by early Sunday morning [2AM JUL 18: 20.8N 105.7E-75kph] and will dissipate overland along the mountainous terrain of Northern Vietnam by Sunday afternoon [2PM JUL 18: 21.7N 104.5E-35kph].

    + Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) circulation continues to affect Hainan and Vietnam including the Gulf Of Tonkin, with its core (eye + eyewall) remaining near the southern coast of Hainan. Its inner (rain) bands spreading across Southern Hainan...while its outer (feeder) bands covering the rest of Hainan Island and Eastern Vietnam. Moderate to strong winds (40-60 kph) w/ occasional to widespread rains can be expected along its outer bands...while along its inner bands - strong winds (60-100 kph) w/ widespread rains is possible. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 245 mm (heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 1 to 4 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Hainan, Gulf Of Tonkin and Vietnam. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    + Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: METRO MANILA, CENTRAL LUZON, BICOL, QUEZON, AND NORTHERN VISAYAS. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


    External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Fri Jul 16
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop



  • JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2PM (06 GMT) FRI 16 JULY POSITION: 17.7N 110.1E.
    *ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE (MS) IMAGERY
    CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY WRAPPED CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
    CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN SOME OF THE
    FEEDER BANDS HAS STARTED TO ERODE IN RECENT HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL
    ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DIVERGENT OUTFLOW ALOFT AND IS IN
    AN AREA OF 20-30 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE
    CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE BANDING EYE FEATURE FOUND IN THE MS
    IMAGERY AND IS IN CONCERT WITH THE RJTD POSITION ESTIMATE. THE
    CURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON PERSISTENT 77-KNOT
    ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND RJTD THOUGH THE 160532Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
    CAME DOWN TO 55 KNOTS (BASED ON THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE).
    TY CONSON WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO
    DAYS AND SKIRT THE COAST OF HAINAN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
    VICINITY OF HANOI, VIETNAM AROUND TAU 30. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
    IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE AFFECTS OF MOUNTAINOUS
    TERRAIN IN NORTHERN VIETNAM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
    GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH LIES SLIGHTLY WEST OF
    JTWC CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
    DAYS WHICH HAVE CONTINUED TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEST...
    (
    more)

    >> CONSON, meaning: A historical placeName contributed by: Vietnam.
    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WEATHER UNDERGROUND TRACKING CHART
    :

    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

     
    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
    ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY CONSON (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

    :: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
       
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