Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS CHANTHU (CALOY)

for Wednesday, 21 July 2010 [6:23 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wed July 21 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on Tropical Storm CHANTHU (CALOY).

CHANTHU (CALOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph

TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU [CALOY/04W/1003]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 011
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Wed 21 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #013
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Storm CHANTHU (CALOY) crawling towards the NNW...approaching the Northern part of Hainan and Western Guangdong.

*Residents and visitors along Western Guangdong and Hainan Island should closely monitor the progress of CHANTHU.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Wed Jul 21 2010
Location of Center: 19.3º N Lat 112.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 200 km (108 nm) East of Qionghai, China
Distance 2: 235 km (127 nm) ESE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 3: 300 km (162 nm) SE of Zhanjiang, Hainan
Distance 4: 345 km (187 nm) SSW of Macau
Distance 5: 375 km (202 nm) SW of Hong Kong
Distance 6: 870 km (470 nm) WNW of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Northern Hainan-Western Guangdong
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 16 ft (4.8 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0-4 feet [0-1.2 m]
Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 PM PhT Wed Jul 21

+ Forecast Outlook: CHANTHU is expected to resume its NW track and will intensify slightly prior in making landfall near Zhanjiang City by tomorrow afternoon [2PM JUL 22: 21.1N 111.0E @ 100kph]. The 2 to 3-day Medium-Range Forecast shows CHANTHU dissipating off China Friday through Saturday [2PM JUL 23: 23.0N 108.8E @ 45kph...2PM JUL 24: 23.7N 107.1E @ 30kph]. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that CHANTHU will track and cross the central or northern part of Hainan Island tonight -- if the strong High Pressure Ridge building north of Hong Kong strengthens more and steers the storm towards the West. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: CHANTHU's circulation remains over South China Sea, with strong winds equally distributed along the inner bands, close to the center. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. Its outer (feeder) bands continues spreading across the Hainan and Western Guangdong. Meanwhile, the inner bands will be approaching Eastern Hainan later tonight, where winds of up to 70 kph expected. Light to moderate winds (20-40 kph) w/ occasional rains is likely along these bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 85 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) situated along the Southern and SE periphery of CHANTHU's center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount.

+ Current ITCZ Intensity: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread afternoon or evening rains w/ strong thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF THE PHILIPPINES. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TS CHANTHU (CALOY)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0410.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 72 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2PM (06 GMT) WED 21 JULY POSITION: 18.9N 112.8E.
*THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TURN POLEWARD
TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
CHINA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONFIRMED BY POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD, AND A 210609Z AMSUB MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE STORM HAS TRACKED
BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS, WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED
THE SYSTEM. A 210228Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS WEAKENED TO 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER, DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD SUGGEST THE LLCC MAY BE SLIGHTLY
STRONGER. ONCE THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER TAU 24...(more)

>> CHANTHU, meaning: A kind of flower. Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: NEW!

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS CHANTHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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