Thursday, July 22, 2010

Typhoon CHANTHU (CALOY) - Update #14

 


for Thursday, 22 July 2010 [5:47 PM PhT]


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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 22 2010):

CHANTHU HAS MADE LANDFALL NEAR WUCHUAN, CHINA APPROX 1-2PM THIS AFTERNOON...(click here to view live observations from Wuchuan AWS). Thanks to James Reynolds of www.typhoonfury.com for the chinese radar and cities' weather observation links. Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on TY CHANTHU (CALOY).


CHANTHU (CALOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph

TYPHOON CHANTHU [CALOY/04W/1003]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 014

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 22 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #017
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)
  • Typhoon CHANTHU (CALOY) has made landfall this afternoon around 2 PM, very near the city of Zhanjiang. Typhoon conditions continues to prevail along Western Guangdong. The eye has already filled-in as it moves inland in the direction of Guangxi Province.

    *Residents and visitors along Western Guangdong particulary Zhanjiang District & Guangxi should closely monitor the progress of CHANTHU.

    *Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

    Current Storm Information

    Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu Jul 22 2010
    Location of Center: 21.6º N Lat 110.0º E Lon
    Distance 1: 60 km (32 nm) WNW of Zhanjiang, China
    Distance 2: 170 km (92 nm) NNW of Haikou, Hainan
    Distance 3: 375 km (203 nm) WSW of Macau
    Distance 4: 440 km (238 nm) WSW of Hong Kong
    Distance 5: 440 km (238 nm) ENE of Hanoi, Vietnam
    MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
    Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
    6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 230 mm [Heavy]
    Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
    Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
    Present Movement: WNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
    Towards: Guangxi Province (China)
    Size (in Diameter): 405 km (220 nm) / Average
    Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft (4.5 m)
    Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
    Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 PM PhT Thu Jul 22

    + Forecast Outlook: CHANTHU is expected to weaken into a Tropical Storm while moving inland across Western Guangdong and into Guangxi Province tonight until tomorrow [2AM JUL 23: 22.4N 108.8E @ 95kph]. The 36-hour Short-Range Forecast shows CHANTHU dissipating over mainland China beginning tomorrow afternoon [2PM JUL 23: 23.1N 107.5E @ 55kph...2AM JUL 24: 23.8N 106.1E @ 35kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

    + Effects & Hazards: CHANTHU's eyewall has started to weaken as it moves across Western Guangdong, away from Zhanjiang City. Southern Eyewall buffeting Zhanjiang, and coastal areas of Western Guangdong. Typhoon conditions (100-120 kph) with heavy rainfall can be expected for the next couple of hours. Its inner (rain) bands now affecting the inland portions of Western Guangdong - where moderate to strong winds (55-95 kph) w/ moderate rains can be expected. The outer (feeder) bands of this system currently spreading across the whole of Hainan, rest of Guangdong and Guangxi Provinces - light to moderate winds (25-50 kph) w/ passing light occasional rains can be expected. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 230 mm (heavy) near the center of CHANTHU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Hainan, and Western Guangdong today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

    + Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ strong thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF THE PHILIPPINES. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

    [Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]


    External Links for TY CHANTHU (CALOY)

    View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis

    JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0410.gif
    Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
    TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 36 hrs Ahead
    NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
    EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
    Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
    Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
      


  • JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

  • REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2PM (06 GMT) THU 22 JULY POSITION: 21.5N 110.4E.
    *TYPHOON (TY) 04W (CHANTHU). LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 10 NM NORTH OF
    ZHANJIANG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
    PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
    220600Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE INDICATE THAT TY 04W MADE LANDFALL AT
    APPROXIMATELY 22/06Z WITH A 15 NM ROUND EYE EVIDENT, THEREFORE,
    THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. THE CURRENT
    INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE LOWER RANGE OF DVORAK
    ESTIMATES OF 77 (KNES) TO 90 KNOTS (RJTD). TY 04W IS TRACKING
    NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE EXTENDING WEST INTO EASTERN CHINA. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
    TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL
    MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST WITH
    THE EXCEPTION OF TC-LAPS WHICH DEPICTS AN UNLIKELY RE-CURVE TRACK.
    THIS FORECAST IS POSITIONED LEFT OF THE JTWC MODEL CONSENSUS. TY 04W
    IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER TAU 12 AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE
    GULF OF TONKIN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 JUST NORTH
    OF VIETNAM...
    (
    more)

    >> CHANTHU, meaning: A kind of flowerName contributed by: Cambodia.
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART
    :

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    RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: NEW!


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    RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:


    > Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER 
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    RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION


    > Image source:  Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)
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    LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP) 



    > Image source:  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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    NOTE:
     
      * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    >> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

       
    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
       
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
        http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
        http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
        http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
    __________________________________________________________________________________________

    For the complete details on TY CHANTHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:

    >
    http://www.typhoon2000.com
    http://www.maybagyo.com

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