Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 04W (UNNAMED)

for Sunday, 18 July 2010 [6:07 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Sun July 18 2010):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on Tropical Depression 04W (UNNAMED) now crossing Central Luzon.

04W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W [UNNAMED]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 18 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #001
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 04W (UNNAMED) has accelerated over the past 6 hours and made landfall just north of Infanta...now approaching the town of Rosales, Pangasinan after passing close to Cabanatuan City.

*Residents and visitors along Central & Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of this depression.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun Jul 18 2010
Location of Center: 15.8º N Lat 120.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 35 km (18 nm) NNW of Cabanatuan City
Distance 2: 70 km (38 nm) ESE of Dagupan City
Distance 3: 75 km (45 nm) SSE of Baguio City
Distance 4: 75 km (40 nm) West of Baler, Aurora
Distance 5: 75 km (40 nm) NNE of Clark/Angeles
Distance 6: 110 km (60 nm) SSE of Sn.Fernando, La Union
Distance 7: 135 km (73 nm) North of Metro Manila
Distance 8: 140 km (75 nm) NW of Infanta, Quezon
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: N.Tarlac-Pangasinan Area
Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #004 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Sun Jul 18

+ Forecast Outlook: 04W is expected to track WNW for the first 12 hours, passing close or over Dagupan City later tonight (approx 10PM) and will be over Cape Bolinao, Pangasinan by early tomorrow morning [2AM JUL 19: 16.3N 119.9E @ 55kph]. It will then be moving into the South China Sea tomorrow afternoon, reaching Tropical Storm strength [2PM JUL 19: 17.6N 118.4E @ 65kph]. The 2 to 4-day Long Range Forecast shows 04W intensifying to near Typhoon strength (110 kph) as it approaches the coast of Southern China (near Hong Kong) on Tuesday afternoon [2PM JUL 20: 20.7N 116.2E @ 110kph], and shall make landfall just to the east of Hong Kong approx. 7-8AM on Wednesday [2PM JUL 21: 23.5N 114.6E @ 100kph]. It shall dissipate as it moves overland across mainland China on Thursday.

+ Effects & Hazards: TD 98W's (UNNAMED) consolidating circulation will continue to cover much of Central & Northern Luzon - as the system passes by. Its inner (rain) bands is currently spreading across Nueva Ecija, Tarlac & Pangasinan...while its outer (feeder) bands affecting other parts of Central Luzon including Metro Manila. Moderate winds (30-50 kph) w/ moderate to heavy rains can be expected along its inner bands...while light to moderate winds (10-30 kph) w/ occasional rains is likely along the outer bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of this unnamed depression . Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL, QUEZON, MINDORO, REST OF VISAYAS AND MINDANAO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for 98W (LPA)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0410.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 96 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2PM (06 GMT) SUN 18 JULY POSITION: 15.6N 121.2E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 180513Z AMSR-E 89H IMAGE INDICATED A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL LOCATED
JUST EAST OF OKINAWA. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND 6-HOUR MOTION BASED ON THE AMSR-E AND 172238Z TRMM
IMAGES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 180148Z ASCAT IMAGE
INDICATING NUMEROUS 25-30 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AS WELL AS DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. TD 04W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12. MODEL VORTEX TRACKERS ARE LIMITED TO
WBAR AND GFS, HOWEVER, UKMO, NOGAPS AND JGSM MODEL FIELDS SUPPORT
THE CURRENT TRACK. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH
TAU 24 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. AFTER TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 04W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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