Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 04W (CALOY)

for Monday, 19 July 2010 [6:38 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Mon July 19 2010):

Currently issuing the 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on Tropical Depression 04W (CALOY).

04W (CALOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W [CALOY]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 005
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 19 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #003
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Tropical Depression 04W (CALOY) weakened slightly after interacting with Luzon's terrain last night...currently reorganizing over the South China Sea...now moving away from Zambales.

*Residents and visitors along Southern China including Hong Kong and Macau should closely monitor the progress of 04W (CALOY).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Mon Jul 19 2010
Location of Center: 15.3º N Lat 119.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 105 km (57 nm) West of Iba, Zambales
Distance 2: 150 km (80 nm) NW of Subic Bay/Olongapo
Distance 3: 160 km (85 nm) SW of Dagupan City
Distance 4: 240 km (130 nm) WNW of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Present Movement: West @ 20 kph (10 kts)
Towards: South China Sea
Size (in Diameter): 300 km (160 nm) / Small
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 10 ft (3.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 0 feet [0 m]
T2K TrackMap #005 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Mon Jul 19

+ Forecast Outlook: 04W is expected to turn WNW to NW-ward within the next 12 to 24 hours, and intensify to Tropical Storm strength early tomorrow [2AM JUL 20: 16.7N 117.1E @ 65kph]. It will eventually move NNW across the South China Sea towards Hong Kong, with peak strength of 100 kph on Wednesday [2AM JUL 21: 19.3N 115.9E @ 100kph]. The 3 to 5-day Long-Range Forecast shows 04W making landfall to the east of Hong Kong by early Thursday morning [2AM JUL 22: 22.2N 114.7E @ 95kph]. It shall dissipate as it moves overland across mainland China on Thursday until Saturday [2AM JUL 23: 24.8N 113.7E @ 45kph...2AM JUL 24: 27.1N 113.1E @ 35kph].

+ Effects & Hazards: TD 04W's (CALOY) circulation slightly disorganized over the South China Sea. Its outer (feeder) bands continues to affect Zambales & Western Pangasinan. Light to moderate winds (10-30 kph) w/ occasional rains is likely along the outer bands. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 100 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) situated along the southern periphery of 04W's (CALOY) center. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount

+ Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains w/ thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL, QUEZON, MINDORO, REST OF VISAYAS AND MINDANAO. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for 04W (CALOY)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0410.gif
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2AM (18 GMT) MON 19 JULY POSITION: 15.3N 119.0E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER AS THE SYSTEM CAME OFFSHORE FROM LUZON JUST NORTH
OF SUBIC BAY, INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, TD 04W TRACKED ON A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION
STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW (AROUND 700 MB). THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATED
FROM A 181330Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD OF T1.5 TO
T2.0 AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND FROM THE
181800Z OBSERVATION FROM SUBIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A
MORE NORTHWESTWARD PATTERN AS IT INTENSIFIES AND GETS STEERED BY A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NORTHWEST
PACIFIC. TD 04W WILL PEAK AT 55 KNOTS BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR
HONG-KONG AROUND TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH GFS AS THE SOLE OUTLIER RIGHT
OF THE ENVELOPE AND EGRR JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PACK. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO COMPENSATE FOR GFS
HAVING A SEVERE UNLIKELY PULL TO THE RIGHT...(more)
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RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 04W (CALOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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