Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CONSON (BASYANG) now over Cam Norte...next path Northern Quezon & Metro Manila [Update #06]

for Tuesday, 13 July 2010 [6:39 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue July 13 2010):

Still continuing 3-hrly advisories on TY CONSON (BASYANG). Meanwhile, those who are automatically subscribed to the T2K ON service of SMART/TNT, we are sorry to announce - that service is currently OFFLINE. Smart tech guys are fixing the problem. For the meantime, kindly use the ON-DEMAND SMS by texting T2K TYPHOON to get the latest info on this approaching storm.

CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 kph

TYPHOON CONSON [BASYANG/03W/1002]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 006
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Tue 13 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #008
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

Typhoon CONSON (BASYANG) slightly making landfall over Camarines Norte...now over the town of Paracale...eyeing Metro Manila.

*Residents and visitors along Metro Manila, Central & Southern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Tue Jul 13 2010
Location of Cloud-Filled Eye: 14.3º N Lat 122.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 25 km (13 nm) NW of Daet, Cam. Norte
Distance 2: 65 km (35 nm) WNW of Siruma, Cam. Sur
Distance 3: 90 km (48 nm) NW of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 130 km (70 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 5: 160 km (87 nm) East of Los Baños, Laguna
Distance 6: 190 km (103 nm) ESE of Quezon City
Distance 7: 195 km (105 nm) East of Manila
Distance 8: 275 km (148 nm) ESE of Subic Bay
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (85 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Northern Quezon-Metro Manila
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft (6.0 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap #008 (for Public): 6 PM PhT Tue Jul 13

+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to continue to track slightly Westward and will be over Polillo Island around 9 PM tonight. The center will weaken into a Tropical Storm as it makes landfall over Northern Quezon or over Real, Quezon around midnight tonight and shall be over the northern part of Metro Manila early tomorrow - passing very close to Quezon City between 3-4 AM tomorrow [2AM JUL 14: 14.7N 121.3E]. CONSON shall continue moving across the provinces of Pampanga & Zambales and will be over the South China Sea by tomorrow afternoon [2PM JUL 14: 15.7N 118.8E]. The 3 to 5-Day Long-Range Forecast shows the system making its final landfall on Saturday morning along Southern China or just west of Macau [2PM JUL 17: 22.9N 111.3E]. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that CONSON will continue tracking Westward and pass over Cavite or Manila -- if the strong, steering High Pressure Ridge which extends east of Taiwan will not weaken.--> Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) outer rain bands now covering the whole of Southern Luzon and portions of Central Luzon including Metro Manila, while its Inner rain bands spreading across the Camarines Norte and parts of NW Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay), where strong winds of up to 80 kph can be expected. The Southern Eyewall (with 80-100 kph winds) of CONSON is now moving away from Camarines Norte and is now affecting the eastern portions of Southern Quezon. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 250 mm (very heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning late today until early tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Camarines Norte, Polillo, Southern & Northern Quezon. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNAL # THREE (3)
In Effect: AURORA, NORTHERN QUEZON, POLILLO IS., AND CAMARINES NORTE.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
In Effect: ISABELA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, NUEVA ECIJA, QUIRINO, BULACAN, RIZAL, LAGUNA, SOUTHERN QUEZON, MARINDUQUE, CAMARINES SUR, AND CATANDUANES.

The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02) and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: METRO MANILA, CAGAYAN, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, ILOCOS SUR, LA UNION, BENGUET, IFUGAO, PANGASINAN, TARLAC, ZAMBALES, PAMPANGA, BATAAN, CAVITE, BATANGAS, AND ALBAY.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph can be expected tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1, 2 & 3 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 5 PM Tue Jul 13
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 13 JULY POSITION: 14.3N 123.5E.
*ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SLIGHT
WEAKENING DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A 130455Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WITH A SMALL
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THIS SIGNATURE ALONG WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 45 TO 77 KNOTS SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65
KNOTS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION
BASED ON THE AMSR-E IMAGE. TY 03W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD
MANILA UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER AIR
DATA FROM LAOAG (98223) AND XISHA DAO (59981) INDICATE STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AT 45-70 KNOTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA
SEA. THEREFORE, TY 03W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN LUZON BUT SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
STR. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GFS, WHICH DEPICTS AN ERRONEOUS NORTHWARD TRACK
TOWARD TAIWAN. TY 03W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD (BUT SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH OVER THE WARM WATER) DUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG NORTHERLY VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STR
ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. TY 03W WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTHWEST
OF HONG KONG NEAR TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AFTER TAU 96....(more)

>> CONSON, meaning: A historical place. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 PM (08 GMT) TUE 13 JULY: 14.4N 123.3E / WEST @ 22 kph / 120 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CONSON (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm