Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CHANTHU (CALOY)

for Thursday, 22 July 2010 [6:44 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thu July 22 2010):

Currently issuing 6-hrly updates web advisiories (except 12 AM HKT) on TY CHANTHU (CALOY).

CHANTHU (CALOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 125 kph

TYPHOON CHANTHU [CALOY/04W/1003]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 22 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #015
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

CHANTHU (CALOY) becomes the 2nd Typhoon this season...approaching Western Guangdong...Eye may pass very close to Zhanjiang City later today.

*Residents and visitors along Western Guangdong and Hainan Island particularly Zhanjiang City should closely monitor the progress of CHANTHU.

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu Jul 22 2010
Location of Eye: 20.4º N Lat 111.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 140 km (75 nm) ENE of Haikou, Hainan
Distance 2: 150 km (80 nm) SE of Zhanjiang, China
Distance 3: 175 km (95 nm) NE of Qionghai, Hainan
Distance 4: 290 km (157 nm) SW of Macau
Distance 5: 335 km (180 nm) SW of Hong Kong
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 180 mm [Moderate]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: NW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Zhanjiang City Area
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
Latest WunderTrack (for Public): 2 AM PhT Thu Jul 22

+ Forecast Outlook: CHANTHU is expected make landfall near or over the City of Zhanjiang late this afternoon or early tonight [2PM JUL 22: 20.9N 111.0E @ 110kph] and will move inland across Western Guangdong. The 1 to 2-day Short-Range Forecast shows CHANTHU dissipating over mainland China beginning Friday through Saturday morning [2AM JUL 23: 21.9N 109.8E @ 75kph...2AM JUL 24: 23.0N 108.0E @ 35kph]. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: CHANTHU's core (eye + eyewall) remains over water, however it is likely to reach the coast of Western Guangdong (along Zhanjiang area) later this noontime or afternoon. Its inner (rain) bands now affecting the Eastern and NE part of Hainan Island and the coastal areas of Western Guangdong - where moderate to strong winds (50-80 kph) w/ light to moderate rains can be expected. The outer (feeder) bands of this system continues to spread across the whole of Hainan and other portions of Guangdong Province - light to moderate winds (15-40 kph) w/ passing light occasional rains can be expected. Click here to view the latest NOAA-CIRA's Wind Analysis. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 85 mm (light to moderate rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 150 mm (moderate) near the center of CHANTHU. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Hainan, and Western Guangdong today. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

+ Current ITCZ Intensity: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread afternoon or evening rains w/ strong thunderstorms can be expected along the following affected areas: REST OF THE PHILIPPINES. Possible landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

External Links for TY CHANTHU (CALOY)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0410.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 48 hrs Ahead
NASA-JAXA TMI Page: Latest Rainrate 01
EORC-JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate 02
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2AM (18 GMT) THU 22 JULY POSITION: 19.8N 112.2E.
*ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CONVECTION SPATIAL EXTENT HAS REDUCED, THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER WHICH HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.5 FROM
KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
WELL SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ALSO
EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT HAS TEMPERED SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. TS 04W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR ANCHORED IN THE
NORTHWEST PACIFIC. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTHWEST, THE VWS IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX SLIGHTLY ALLOWING IT TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY BEFORE IT
MAKES LANDFALL NEAR ZHANJIANG AFTER TAU 12. CHANTHU WILL THEN
DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH WBAR AND TCLAPS
AS THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIERS AND JGSM AND GFS TO THE LEFT OF THE PACK.
THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
WBAR AND TCLAPS WHICH DEPICT AN UNREASONABLE TUG TO THE
NORTH...(more)

>> CHANTHU, meaning: A kind of flower. Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: NEW!

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RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY CHANTHU (CALOY)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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