Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon CONSON (BASYANG)

for Tuesday, 13 July 2010 [6:45 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tue July 13 2010):

Now issuing 6-hrly advisories on TY CONSON (BASYANG). Meanwhile, those who are automatically subscribed to the T2K ON service of SMART/TNT, we are sorry to announce - that service is currently OFFLINE. Smart tech guys are fixing the problem. For the meantime, kindly use the ON-DEMAND SMS by texting T2K TYPHOON to get the latest info on this approaching storm.

CONSON (BASYANG) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 kph

TYPHOON CONSON [BASYANG/03W/1002]
T2K EMAIL ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Tue 13 July 2010
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #006
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2010)

CONSON (BASYANG) has intensified into a Typhoon as it moves closer to the northern coast of Catanduanes...now endangers Bicol, Northern Quezon, Central & Northern Luzon.

*Residents and visitors along Samar, Bicol Region and Luzon should closely monitor the progress of CONSON (BASYANG).

*Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

Current Storm Information

Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Tue Jul 13 2010
Location of Eye: 14.2º N Lat 125.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 135 km (73 nm) NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 170 km (92 nm) ENE of Gota, Caramoan
Distance 3: 210 km (112 nm) NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 235 km (127 nm) ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 260 km (140 nm) East of Daet, Cam. Norte
Distance 6: 395 km (213 nm) ESE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 7: 410 km (222 nm) SE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 455 km (245 nm) ESE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
6-hr Rain Amounts (near the center): 200 mm [Heavy]
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Present Movement: West @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Northern Quezon-Aurora
Size (in Diameter): 555 km (300 nm) / Average
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft (5.4 m)
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap #006 (for Public): 6 AM PhT Tue Jul 13

+ Forecast Outlook: CONSON (BASYANG) is expected to pass about 50 to 100 km. north of Catanduanes this morning and will be about 130 km. North of Naga City around 2-4 PM [2PM JUL 13: 14.6N 123.8E]. CONSON shall make landfall somewhere between Baler, Aurora and Infanta, Quezon around 2 AM tomorrow [2 AM JUL 14: 15.3N 121.5E] and cross Central and Northern Luzon tomorrow morning passing over the provinces of Nueva Ecija-Tarlac-Pampanga-Zambales. It will then move out into the South China Sea or off the coast of Zambales tomorrow afternoon [2PM JUL 14: 16.0N 119.5E]. The 3 to 5-Day Long-Range Forecast shows the system downgraded into a Tropical Storm as it turns more to the NW to NNW by Thursday while over the South China Sea [2AM JUL 15: 17.2N 117.4E]. CONSON shall make its second landfall early Saturday morning along Southern China or just west of Hong Kong [2AM JUL 17: 21.9N 113.7E]. *Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that CONSON will continue tracking Westward and pass less than 100 km. to the north of Naga this afternoon, and traverse Central Luzon via Infanta -- if the strong, steering High Pressure Ridge which extends east of Taiwan will not weaken. Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, so a turn to the left or right of its future track and other possibilities must be considered.

+ Effects & Hazards: CONSON's (BASYANG) outer rain bands now covering Samar and Bicol Provinces, while its Inner rain bands now spreading across Catanduanes, where strong winds of up to 100 kph can be expected. 6-hr total rainfall amounts of 5 up to 150 mm (light, moderate to heavy rain) can be expected along the outer and inner rainbands...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (heavy) near the center of CONSON. Click here to view the latest NOAA's eTRaP graphic on the storm's rainfall amount. People living around the slopes of Mayon Volcano in Albay & of Bulusan Volcano in Sorsogon - especially along the areas where possible MUDFLOWS (LAHAR) FLOWS (mixture of volcanic mud and water) are located must stay alert as moderate to heavy rains associated by this system are likely to affect the area beginning late today until early tomorrow. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible along the coastal areas of Bicol Region, Polillo, Quezon & Aurora. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge.

[Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!]

PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # TWO (2)
Now In Effect: CATANDUANES, CAMARINES NORTE, POLILLO, AURORA, QUIRINO, AND ISABELA.

The above areas will experience stormy weather later today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02) Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1)
In Effect: CAMARINES SUR, ALBAY, QUEZON, RIZAL, BULACAN, PAMPANGA, TARLAC, NUEVA ECIJA, NUEVA VIZCAYA, IFUGAO, BENGUET, MT. PROVINCE, PANGASINAN, LA UNION, ABRA, ILOCOS SUR, KALINGA, AND CAGAYAN.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph can be expected beginning today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Numbers 1 & 2 are alerted against flashfloods, mudflows, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).

External Links for TY CONSON (BASYANG)

View NOAA-CIRA's Latest Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp0310.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: 4 AM Tue Jul 13
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 120 hrs Ahead
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop

JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) 12, 24, & 48 HR. FORECAST & REMARKS:

2 PM (06 GMT) 13 JULY: 14.6N 123.8E / 140-165 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 14 JULY: 15.3N 121.5E / 130-160 KPH (TY-Cat 1) / WNW @ 19 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 JULY: 17.2N 117.4E / 100-130 KPH (TS) / NW @ 15 KPH

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 12 JULY POSITION: 14.2N 126.4E.
*ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM HAS DEEPENED AND EXPANDED. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 121656Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING AN
EYE-LIKE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM T3.5 TO T4.5. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 03W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW AT 200 MB. IN ADDITION TO THE
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS, WARM OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC)IN THE
PHILIPPINE SEA WILL ENHANCE MODERATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL NEAR QUEZON, PHILIPPINES BY
TAU 24. IT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
CENTRAL LUZON AND EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BEFORE TAU 36. DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOLER OHC AND INCREASING VWS, CONSON IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT MAKES FINAL
LANDFALL SOUTH OF HONG-KONG AFTER TAU 96. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC
GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST WITH
GFS AS THE SOLE OUTLIER, BRINGING THE CYCLONE ABRUPTLY TO THE NORTH
AFTER TAU 24....(more)

>> CONSON, meaning: A historical place. Name contributed by: Vietnam.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 4 AM (20 GMT) TUE 13 JULY: 14.6N 126.2E / WEST @ 22 kph / 115 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT TYPHOON2000.COM TRACKING CHART:

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:
***WARNING!!! THIS SATELLITE ANIMATION IS NOT YET ALIGNED WITH THE LAND FEATURES (Check the aligned photo above).***

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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LATEST 6 HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):

> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTE:

* - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY CONSON (BASYANG)...go visit our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm