Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #013
Name: TYPHOON MAN-YI [BEBENG/04W/0704]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 14 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 14 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #026
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) SAT 14 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #026
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON MAN-YI (BEBENG) SLOWS DOWN AND DOWNGRADED TO CATE-
GORY TWO...MOVING CLOSER TO WESTERN HONSHU.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAN-YI is expected to make landfall over GORY TWO...MOVING CLOSER TO WESTERN HONSHU.
SW Kyushu this afternoon around 4 PM Japan Time, passing
very close to Kagoshima, Japan. The 1 to 2-day medium-range
forecast (Jul 15 to 16) shows the system traversing the
beachfront-coastal areas of Shikoku and Honshu early tomorrow
morning until the whole day of Sunday (Jul 15). MAN-YI is
forecast to pass very close to the south of Metropolitan
Tokyo as a downgraded tropical storm or Extratropical Cyclone
by Sunday evening (approx 9 PM Japan Time, Jul 15). MAN-YI
shall exit Eastern Honshu during the early hours of July 16.
+ EFFECTS: MAN-YI's over-all circulation has shrunked consi-
derably as it near Western Japan, with its outer bands sprea-
ding across Okinawa-Ryukyus, Kyushu, Shikoku and Honshu. The
inner bands is expected to arrive over Western Kyushu this
morning. Typhoon-force winds w/ moderate to heavy rains is
expected over the main Japanese islands of Kyushu and Shiko-
ku today until tomorrow as the core (eye + eyewall) of MAN-
YI starts to make landfall. Coastal Storm Surge flooding of
5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and
dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the
north of MAN-YI's projected path or over Western Kyushu
today. Flash floods and mudslides are imminent along river
banks, low-lying and mountainous areas of the affected
areas. Extra-precautions must be implemented NOW as the
dangerous typhoon passes by.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon has
started to retreat and weaken as MAN-YI loses strength.
Cloudy skies with possible intermittent passing rains or
thunderstorms can still be expected across the western
sections of Luzon, Southern Luzon and Visayas w/ SW'ly
winds of 30 km/hr or higher, becoming more frequent along
the Western sections of Palawan, Southern & Western Panay,
Western Negros, Boracay, Bataan, Zambales, Batangas, and
Western Mindoro. Mudslides and flooding is likely along
river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected
areas. Stay tuned for more Monsoon updates on the next
advisory.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: N/A.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 14 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 29.8º N...LONGITUDE 128.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 280 KM (150 NM) SW OF KAGOSHIMA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 375 KM (203 NM) ENE OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 3: 875 KM (472 NM) NE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 1,235 KM (667 NM) NNE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)DISTANCE 4: 1,235 KM (667 NM) NNE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 205 KM/HR (110 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY TWO (2)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 956 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: KYUSHU, JAPAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,075 KM (580 NM)/ VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 42 FEET (12.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME JULY 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 48 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 JUL: 31.4N 130.1E / 150-185 KPH / NE @ 30 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 JUL: 33.2N 133.3E / 120-150 KPH / ENE @ 35 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 JUL: 36.1N 142.6E / 95-120 KPH / ENE @ 41 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 JULY POSITION: 29.3N 128.1E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLU-
ENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
TY 04W HAS REACHED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS
BEGINNING TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...(more)
>> MAN-YI {pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori-
ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the
sea has become a reservoir. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...(more)
>> MAN-YI {pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori-
ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the
sea has become a reservoir. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
____________
____________
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on Typhoon MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on Typhoon MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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