Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #012
Name: SUPER TYPHOON MAN-YI [BEBENG/04W/0704]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 13 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 14 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #024
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) SAT 14 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #024
_______________________________________________________________________
SUPER TYPHOON MAN-YI (BEBENG) REMAINS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY 4 STORM...WEAKENS TO 240 KM/HR...NOW MOVING AWAY
FROM OKINAWA AND THE RYUKYUS...AIMS FOR KYUSHU, JAPAN.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAN-YI is expected to recurve towards CATEGORY 4 STORM...WEAKENS TO 240 KM/HR...NOW MOVING AWAY
FROM OKINAWA AND THE RYUKYUS...AIMS FOR KYUSHU, JAPAN.
the NE or ENE in the direction of Kyushu in the next 12
hours. The "eye" shall make landfall over SW Kyushu tomo-
rrow noon time around 1 PM Japan Time, passing very close
to Kagoshima, Japan. The 1 to 2-day medium-range forecast
(Jul 14 to 15) shows the system traversing the beachfront-
coastal areas of Shikoku and Honshu tomorrow evening until
the whole day of Sunday (Jul 15). MAN-YI is forecast to
pass very close to the south of Metropolitan Tokyo as a
downgraded tropical storm by Sunday afternoon (approx 4
or 5 PM Japan Time, Jul 15). MAN-YI is likely to become
an Extratropical Cyclone upon exiting Eastern Honshu or
over the North Pacific Ocean late Sunday night or
Monday morning.
+ EFFECTS: MAN-YI's over-all circulation remains large
and continues to cover most of the Northernmost Phili-
ppine Sea and the East China Sea and is now spreading
across Kyushu and Shikoku. The inner bands is expected
to arrive over Western Kyushu before tonight or early
tomorrow morning. Typhoon-force winds w/ moderate to
heavy rains is forecast tomorrow morning (Sat Jul 14)
over the main Japanese islands of Kyushu and Shikoku
as the core (eye + eyewall) of MAN-YI approaches. Coas-
tal Storm Surge flooding of more than 15 to 20 feet
above normal tide levels...along with large and dange-
rous battering waves can be expected near and to the
north of MAN-YI's projected path. Flash floods and
mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-lying
and mountainous areas of the affected areas. Extra-
precautions must be implemented NOW as the dangerous
typhoon passes by.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon
affecting most of the Philippines tonight until tomorrow
or Sun (Jul 14-15) as Super Typhoon MAN-YI continues to
enhance it. Cloudy skies with possible intermittent pa-
ssing rains or thunderstorms can be expected across the
country w/ SW'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher, becoming
more frequent along the Western sections of Luzon and
Visayas including Metro Manila, Palawan, Boracay, Wes-
tern Panay, Bataan, Zambales, Batangas, Pangasinan, La
Union, Mindoro and Ilocos Provinces. Mudslides and floo-
ding is likely along river banks, low-lying & flood-prone
areas of the affected areas. Stay tuned for more Monsoon
updates on the next advisory.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: N/A.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 13 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 27.9º N...LONGITUDE 128.0º E
DISTANCE 1: 155 KM (85 NM) NORTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 715 KM (385 NM) NE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 480 KM (260 NM) SW OF KAGOSHIMA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 4: 1,030 KM (555 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 240 KM/HR (130 KTS)DISTANCE 4: 1,030 KM (555 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 295 KM/HR (160 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 926 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: RYUKYU-KYUSHU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,075 KM (580 NM)/ VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 42 FEET (12.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 PM MANILA TIME JULY 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 14 JUL: 29.8N 128.7E / 195-240 KPH / NE @ 26 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 JUL: 31.9N 130.9E / 165-205 KPH / ENE @ 35 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 JUL: 35.1N 139.3E / 110-140 KPH / ENE @ 40 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 13 JULY POSITION: 27.3N 127.7E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLU-
ENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AND DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.
TY 04W HAS REACHED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS AND IS
BEGINNING TO TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...(more)
>> MAN-YI {pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori-
ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the
sea has become a reservoir. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
_______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
OF THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES...(more)
>> MAN-YI {pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori-
ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the
sea has become a reservoir. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
____________
____________
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on Super Typhoon MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on Super Typhoon MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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