Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #010
Name: TYPHOON MAN-YI [BEBENG/04W/0704]
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) THU 12 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 13 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #020
Next Update: 7:00 AM (23:00 GMT) FRI 13 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #020
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON MAN-YI (BEBENG) IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR SYSTEM...ALMOST A SUPER TYPHOON...BARRELING
CLOSER TO OKINAWA-RYUKYU ISLANDS. THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINES
DIMINISHES.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAN-YI is expected to reach Super Ty-phoon strength tonight with projected wind speed of 250
km/hr. The 2 to 3-day medium-range forecast (Jul 13 to 15)
shows the system passing very close to Okinawa, Japan early
tomorrow afternoon, Friday the 13th - with its closest
approach of 50 km. WNW of Kadena Air Base in Okinawa at
around 2 PM Japan Time. It shall then recurve towards the
NE to ENE passing along the beachfront-coastal areas of
Kyushu, Shikoku & Honshu beginning Saturday afternoon, Jul
14 until Sunday evening Jul 15. The eye of MAN-YI is forecast
to make a coastal passby over Southern Honshu Sunday morning,
Jul 15 - passing directly or very close to Metropolitan Tokyo
(at around 5 PM Japan Time). MAN-YI is likely to become an
Extratropical Cyclone after crossing the coastal areas of
Honshu, Japan or over the North Pacific Ocean (early Monday
morning, Jul 16).
+ EFFECTS: MAN-YI's over-all circulation remains large and
continues to cover most of the Philippine Sea. Its outer
bands is expected to reach Okinawa and the Ryukyus today,
with its inner bands tonight. Typhoon-force winds w/ mode-
rate to heavy rains can be expected tomorrow as the core
(eye + eyewall) of MAN-YI approaches. Coastal Storm Surge
flooding of 13 to 15 feet above normal tide levels...along
with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected
near and to the north of MAN-YI's projected path. Flash
floods and mudslides are imminent along river banks, low-
lying and mountainous areas of Southern Japan. Extra-pre-
cautions must be implemented NOW as the powerful typhoon
moves closer.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon affec-
ting most of the Philippines today until Sat or Sun (Jul
14-15) as Typhoon MAN-YI continues to enhance it. Cloudy
skies with possible intermittent passing rains or thunder-
storms can be expected across the country w/ SW'ly winds
of 30 km/hr or higher, becoming more frequent along the
Western sections of Palawan, Panay, Mindoro, Southern Lu-
zon and Western Visayas. Western Luzon and Metro Manila
may experience this monsoon system beginning tonight.
Mudslides and flooding is likely along river banks, low-
lying & flood-prone areas of Western Luzon & Western Vi-
sayas. Stay tuned for more Monsoon updates on the next
advisory.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: N/A.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) 12 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 22.8º N...LONGITUDE 128.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 410 KM (220 NM) SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 700 KM (380 NM) ENE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 715 KM (385 NM) ESE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 4: 845 KM (455 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 230 KM/HR (125 KTS)DISTANCE 4: 845 KM (455 NM) NE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 280 KM/HR (150 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FOUR (4)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 916 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 24 KM/HR (13 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-RYUKYU-
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,165 KM (630 NM)/ VERY LARGE
VIEW T2K FINAL TRACKING MAP: 5 PM MANILA TIME JULY 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 13 JUL: 24.5N 127.5E / 250-305 KPH / N @ 22 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 13 JUL: 26.8N 127.3E / 230-280 KPH / NNE @ 20 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 JUL: 30.9N 129.8E / 165-205 KPH / NE @ 37 KPH
REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 JULY POSITION: 22.2N 128.6E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 04W (MAN-YI) HAS INTENSIFIED TO 125 KTS, WITH THE
EYE DIAMETER SHRINKING TO 30 NM. A MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE WALL, AND SPIRAL BANDING ON
THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM. ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH THE CONTINUED
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. TY MAN-YI HAS
SLOWED FROM ITS PREVIOUS 20 KT FORWARD SPEED 12 HOURS
AGO...(more)
>> MAN-YI {pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori-
ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the
sea has become a reservoir. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 JULY: 22.2N 128.6E / NNW @ 22 KPH / 160 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on Typhoon MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on Typhoon MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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