Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007
Name: TYPHOON MAN-YI [BEBENG/04W/0704]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 11 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 11 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #014
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) WED 11 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #014
_______________________________________________________________________
TYPHOON MAN-YI {pronounced as "Mun-yi"} (BEBENG) GAINED
MORE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RES-
PONSIBILITY (PAR)...NOW LOCALLY NAMED "BEBENG"...MOVING
FASTER TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAN-YI is expected to continue in-MORE STRENGTH AS IT ENTERS THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RES-
PONSIBILITY (PAR)...NOW LOCALLY NAMED "BEBENG"...MOVING
FASTER TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.
tensifying as it traverses the Northern Philippine Sea
& shall move in a generally NW'ly track for the next 2
days. Majority of the computer forecast models still
shows a path towards Okinawa-Southern Japan area this
weekend (Jul 14 to 16). The 3 to 5-day long-range fore-
cast (Jul 14 to 16) shows the system becoming a Category
4 Typhoon (215 km/hr) as it recurves Northward, passing
very close to the East of Okinawa, Japan this early Sa-
turday morning, Jul 13 (around 12 AM HK Time) and shall
accelerate ENE passing onshore along the beachfront
areas of Kyushu, Shikoku & Honshu. By 2 AM HK Time, Sun-
day (Jul 15), MAN-YI is forecast to pass very close to
Tokyo, Japan - approx. 110 km to the South.
+ EFFECTS: MAN-YI's over-all circulation remains large
and continues to cover most of the Philippine Sea and
portions of Micronesia. Overcast skies with moderate
to heavy rains & gale-force winds of 55-65 km/hr is
expected along the affected areas.
+ MONSOON INTENSITY FORECAST: The advance 2 to 3-day
forecast continues to show a surge of moderate to strong
Southwest (SW) Monsoon which is likely to affect the Phi-
lippines beginning today July 11 extending thru the week-
end (Thu to Sun, Jul 12-15) - as the large Typhoon MAN-YI
enhances the Monsoon wind system. Cloudy skies with inter-
mittent passing rains or thunderstorms can be expected
across the country w/ SW'ly winds of 30 km/hr or higher,
becoming more intense along the Western sections of the
Philippines including Metro Manila & Subic Bay. Mudslides
and flooding is likely along river banks, low-lying &
flood-prone areas of Western Philippines. Stay tuned for
more Monsoon updates in the coming hours.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: N/A.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 11 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 15.4º N...LONGITUDE 134.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 1,150 KM (620 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,265 KM (685 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,360 KM (735 NM) ESE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH
DISTANCE 4: 1,485 KM (802 NM) ENE OF METRO MANILA, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)DISTANCE 4: 1,485 KM (802 NM) ENE OF METRO MANILA, PH
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 165 KM/HR (90 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 972 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NW @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-KYUSHU AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,020 KM (550 NM)/ VERY LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 26 FEET (7.9 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME JULY 11
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12 & 24 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 11 JULY: 17.0N 133.3E / 160-195 KPH / NW @ 26 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 12 JULY: 19.1N 131.4E / 175-215 KPH / NW @ 24 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 11 JULY POSITION: 14.9N 135.3E.
^TYPHOON (TY) MAN-YI HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS-
THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM
WAS UPGRADED AT 2PM JUL 10 TO TYPHOON STATUS AND CONTINUES
TO SHOW INDICATIONS THAT IT IS CONSOLIDATING QUICKLY. ANI-
MATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WITH COLDER
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -90C. A CURRENT MICROWAVE IMAGE
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED MICRO-
WAVE EYE EVIDENT AT 37 GHZ WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND WRAPPING INTO THE
CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT TY MAN-YI HAS MAINTAINED EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND, RECEN-
TLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING SLOWLY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER THE SYSTEM...(more)
>> MAN-YI {pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori-
ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the
sea has become a reservoir. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
____________
PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 4 AM (20 GMT) 11 JULY: 15.2N 134.8E / NW @ 26 KPH / 120 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on Typhoon MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on Typhoon MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
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