Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #011
Name: SUPER TYPHOON MAN-YI [BEBENG/04W/0704]
Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) FRI 13 JULY 2007
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 13 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #022
Next Update: 7:00 PM (11:00 GMT) FRI 13 JULY
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #022
_______________________________________________________________________
MAN-YI (BEBENG) JUST LEFT THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBI-
LITY (PAR) AS IT BECOMES THE FIRST SUPER TYPHOON THIS 2007
WESTERN PACIFIC SEASON...NOW AN EXTREMELY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE STORM...EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO
+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAN-YI is expected to maintain its Super LITY (PAR) AS IT BECOMES THE FIRST SUPER TYPHOON THIS 2007
WESTERN PACIFIC SEASON...NOW AN EXTREMELY CATASTROPHIC
CATEGORY FIVE STORM...EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO
Typhoon strength for the next 6 hours before weakening in 12
hours time. The eye is expected to pass very close to Okinawa,
Japan this morning around 9 AM Japan Time at a close distance
of 50 km. to the West. The 1 to 2-day medium-range forecast
(Jul 14 to 15) shows the system making landfall over Kyushu
tomorrow, Saturday afternoon (Jul 14) then shall continue
tracking ENE traversing the Japanese major islands of Shikoku
and Honshu (on the southern portion) tomorrow evening until
whole day Sunday (Jul 15). MAN-YI is forecast to pass very
close to the North of Metropolitan Tokyo as a downgraded Ca-
tegory 1 Typhoon by Sunday afternoon (approx 3 PM Japan Time,
Jul 15). MAN-YI is likely to become an Extratropical Cyclone
after exiting Eastern Honshu or over the North Pacific Ocean
(early Monday morning, Jul 16).
+ EFFECTS: MAN-YI's over-all circulation remains large and
continues to cover most of the Northern Philippine Sea and
the East China Sea. The northeastern eyewall of MAN-YI is
now entering Okinawa with extremely dangerous situation as
of the moment. Very strong winds and heavy rains can be ex-
pected over this tiny island as the eye makes its closest
approach in a few hours. Meanwhile, its outer bands is star-
ting to spread across Kyushu, Japan today, with its inner
bands tonight. Typhoon-force winds w/ moderate to heavy
rains can be expected tomorrow over Western Japan as the
core (eye + eyewall) of MAN-YI approaches. Coastal Storm
Surge flooding of more than 20 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves can
be expected near and to the north of MAN-YI's projected path
or over Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands today. Flash floods and mud-
slides are imminent along river banks, low-lying and moun-
tainous areas of the affected areas. Extra-precautions must
be implemented NOW as the dangerous typhoon passes by.
+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon affec-
ting most of the Philippines today until Sat or Sun (Jul
14-15) as Typhoon MAN-YI continues to enhance it. Cloudy
skies with possible intermittent passing rains or thunder-
storms can be expected across the country w/ SW'ly winds
of 30 km/hr or higher, becoming more frequent along the
Western sections of Luzon and Visayas including Metro
Manila, Bataan, Zambales, Pangasinan, La Union, Mindoro
and Ilocos Provinces. Mudslides and flooding is likely
along river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the
affected areas. Stay tuned for more Monsoon updates on
the next advisory.
+ TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: N/A.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast
outlook, effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical
cyclone watch changes every 06 to 12 hours!
____________
TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) 13 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 25.5º N...LONGITUDE 127.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 125 KM (67 NM) SW OF OKINAWA, JAPAN
DISTANCE 2: 585 KM (315 NM) ENE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN
DISTANCE 3: 785 KM (425 NM) NE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH
DISTANCE 4: 985 KM (530 NM) NNE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 250 KM/HR (135 KTS)DISTANCE 4: 985 KM (530 NM) NNE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 305 KM/HR (165 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY FIVE (5)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 922 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 26 KM/HR (14 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: OKINAWA-RYUKYU-
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 1,165 KM (630 NM)/ VERY LARGE
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME JULY 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: N/A
12, 24 & 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 13 JUL: 27.4N 127.3E / 230-280 KPH / NNE @ 22 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 14 JUL: 29.6N 128.1E / 215-260 KPH / NE @ 31 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 JUL: 34.0N 134.7E / 160-195 KPH / ENE @ 42 KPH
REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 JULY POSITION: 24.9N 127.4E.
^A MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE
WALL, AND SPIRAL BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STORM, THIS
IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN QUADRANTS. ANALYSIS OF ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH A WEAK POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL...(more)
>> MAN-YI {pronounced: mun~yi}, meaning: Name of a strait ori-
ginally. With the construction of a dam, that part of the
sea has become a reservoir. Name contributed by: Hong Kong.
____________
PAGASA FINAL POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):
> 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 JULY: 24.9N 127.5E / NNW @ 22 KPH / 175 kph
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website
at: http://www.pagasa.
_______________________________________________________________________
RECENT TRACKING CHART:
________________________
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.org (Nat'l. Institute of Informatics) (http://www.digital-typhoon.org )
__________________________________________________________________________________________
NOTES:
> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.
^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.
latest warning.
* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on Super Typhoon MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
# 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
visit: http://www.typhoon2
** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
its center.
____________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.
http://www.nhc.
http://www.srh.
http://www.srh.
http://www.nhc.
____________
:: Typhoon2000.
Receive the latest storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To know more:
Send T2K HELP to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
For the complete details on Super Typhoon MAN-YI (BEBENG)...go visit
our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2
> http://www.maybagyo
Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch format to Traditional
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe
SPONSORED LINKS
.
__,_._,___
No comments:
Post a Comment