Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon DOLPHIN (ULYSSES)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #013

Name: TYPHOON DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) WED 17 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #026 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) JUST BARELY A TYPHOON AS IT WEAKENS RAPIDLY...HEADING

NORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to be downgraded into a tropical

storm today and move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)

tomorrow morning. The cold-dry air from the NE Monsoon is forecast to

continue entering DOLPHIN's circulation, dissipating the storm in 48 to

72 hours. It shall be just a weak tropical disturbance (LPA) approaching

Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) early Saturday morning (Dec 20).

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation continues to shrink over the NE portion

of the Philippine Sea and is not affecting any land areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) WED 17 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 18.2º N...LONGITUDE 131.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 950 KM (512 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 1,050 KM (567 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,060 KM (572 NM) ESE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,065 KM (575 NM) EAST OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 974 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNE @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: IWO TO-CHICHI JIMA AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 480 KM (260 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 AM PST WED DEC 17
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z TUE DEC 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 72 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 19.1N 132.3E / 110-140 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 20.5N 133.8E / 95-120 KPH / NE @ 19 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 22.4N 137.7E / 55-75 KPH / ENE @ 13 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 20 DECEMBER: 23.0N 140.6E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER POSITION: 17.8N 131.3E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY WHILE
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
NEAR 160300Z, ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALED A DEVELOPING
EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, HOWEVER THIS HAS
SINCE BECOME UNDISTINGUISHABLE IN AVAILABLE IMAGERY AND THE SYSTEM
NOW APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. THE WEAKENING TREND WAS ALSO
DISCERNABLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A SMALL BAND OF DEEP
CONVECTION SURROUNDING A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE. THE STRONG BANDING
PREVIOUSLY WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
HOWEVER, HAS DISSIPATED SOMEWHAT WITH ONLY FAINT TRACES OF STRONG
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT GOOD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.6N 131.3E / NNE @ 13 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TY DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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