Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOLPHIN heading towards the Philippines... [Update #004]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #004

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [PRE-ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) FRI 12 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #008 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (PRE-ULYSSES) GAINING STRENGTH ACROSS THE

WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN shall enter the Philippine Area of Respon-

sibility (PAR) tomorrow evening, and is expected to resume its westerly

track for the next 2 days, reaching near-Typhoon strength on Sunday

afternoon with peak 1-min sustained winds of 110 kph. The 3 to 5-day

long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN turning slightly WNW-ward on Monday

evening Dec 15 and weakening down to 85 or 75 kph. Its center shall

pass more or less 100 km to the North of Catanduanes-Camarines Provinces

area on Tuesday evening Dec 16 til Wednesday morning Dec 17. *Alternate

Forecast Scenario: There's a possibilty that DOLPHIN may track WNW to NW
earlier than forecasted and recurve - sparing the Bicol Region and Cen-

tral Luzon on a close pass by. This scenario is likely possible if the

developing frontal system off SE China digs in and break the high pre-

ssure ridge north of the storm.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation continues to improve & expand with the

development of its spiral bands. The system is not yet affecting any

major islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to

100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations

of up to 200 mm near the center of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) FRI 12 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.9º N...LONGITUDE 139.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 495 KM (267 NM) EAST OF PAR
DISTANCE 2: 1,665 KM (900 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,720 KM (928 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,750 KM (945 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 1,770 KM (955 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 993 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 6 PM MANILA TIME FRI DEC 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 14.0N 138.0E / 85-100 KPH / W @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 14.1N 135.9E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 19 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.8N 132.1E / 110-140 KPH / W @ 15 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 13.8N 128.6E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 12 DECEMBER POSITION: 13.6N 140.1E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SYSTEM HAS QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED
INTO A TROPICAL STORM (TS) AND SLOWED TO APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS SOA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CDO FEATURE WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE
OF THE CDO. IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IMPROVED INFLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK. ANIMATED WATER IMAGERY SHOWS FAIR BUT IMPROVED OUTFLOW WITH
A WEAK POLEWARD CHANNEL DEVELOPING AND IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUT-
FLOW. AN 112352Z AMSU IMAGE SHOWED INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY
OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 112033Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND THE
GUAM VAD WIND PROFILE DATA SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MODIFIED THE
SURROUNDING WINDFLOW, WHICH IS NOW FEEDING INTO THE STORM RATHER
THAN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (PRE-ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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