Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOLPHIN (Pre-ULYSSES) moving closer to the PAR... [Update #005]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [PRE-ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 13 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #010 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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DOLPHIN (PRE-ULYSSES) A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE

PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN DOLPHIN is expected to track westward and

enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) late tonight, rea-

ching minimal Typhoon strength (120 kph) early Monday morning, Dec 15.

A new 3 to 5-day long-range forecast package now shows DOLPHIN weake-

ning into a Tropical Storm & turning more to the WNW to NW'ly on Tues-

day Dec 16 - as a passing frontal system from China tries to break the

High Pressure Ridge north of DOLPHIN. *Alternate Forecast Scenario:

There's still a slight possibilty that DOLPHIN shall continue tracking

Westward passing more or less 100 km to the north of Catanduanes-Cama-

rines Area on Tuesday but weakening rapidly into a weak Tropical Storm.

This scenario is likely possible if the developing frontal system off

SE China is not strong enough to break the high pressure ridge north

of the storm.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation has become slightly better organized.

Its rain bands is not yet affecting any major islands at this time.

1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to 100 mm is possible along its

rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 200 mm near the

center of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) SAT 13 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.3º N...LONGITUDE 137.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 235 KM (127 NM) EAST OF PAR
DISTANCE 2: 1,405 KM (758 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,465 KM (790 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,495 KM (807 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 1,510 KM (815 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 85 KM/HR (45 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 989 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 6 AM MANILA TIME SAT DEC 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 14.6N 136.2E / 95-120 KPH / W @ 17 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 14.7N 134.4E / 100-130 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 14.3N 131.4E / 120-150 KPH / WNW @ 11 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.4N 129.0E / 110-140 KPH / NW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 13 DECEMBER POSITION: 14.3N 138.3E.
^OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, TS DOLPHIN (27W) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE
WHILE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED
IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE REGION OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH ASSOCIATED
SPIRAL BANDING CURVATURE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER OF AN OBSCURED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONFIRMS
THE LLCC, AND SHOWS THAT THE MAJORITY OF INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION IS
LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT
REGION ALOFT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS WITH A WEAK
POLEWARD CHANNEL DEVELOPING AND IMPROVED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENT
IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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