Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) heading WSW... [Update #007]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 14 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #014 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA...

MAY BECOME A TYPHOON TODAY.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to continue tracking WSW to

westward for the next 12 to 24 hours before turning to the WNW tomorrow

morning. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN turning sharp-

ly NW to NNW-ward as a passing frontal system off SE China breaks the

high pressure ridge north of DOLPHIN. It shall then weaken rapidly into

a 95-kph Tropical Storm on Wednesday Dec 17...down to a Tropical Depre-

ssion on Thursday Dec 18 as it encounters cool dry air from the North-

east Monsoonal Surge off the Northern Philippine Sea. *Alternate
Forecast Scenario: There's a slight possibilty that DOLPHIN shall

continue tracking Westward passing more or less 200 km to the north

of Catanduanes-Camarines Area on Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning.

This scenario is likely possible if the developing frontal system off

SE China is not strong enough to break the high pressure ridge north

of the storm.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation has become more radial with dual pole-

ward & equatorial outflows. Its rain bands is not yet affecting any

major islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 75 up to

100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations

of up to 250 mm near the center of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 14 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.6º N...LONGITUDE 132.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 920 KM (497 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 975 KM (527 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 1,005 KM (542 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 1,025 KM (553 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 978 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WSW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 500 KM (270 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 21 FEET (6.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 AM PST SUN DEC 14
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z SAT DEC 13
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.7N 131.8E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 13.9N 130.4E / 140-165 KPH / WNW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.3N 128.3E / 110-140 KPH / NNW @ 09 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.0N 127.3E / 95-120 KPH / N @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 DECEMBER POSITION: 13.8N 133.5E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS REMAINED AT ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE JET
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 27W CONTINUES TO TRACK DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.9N 133.7E / WEST @ 15 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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