Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon DOLPHIN (ULYSSES)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #012

Name: TYPHOON DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) TUE 16 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #024 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TYPHOON DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE

CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA...THREAT TO THE PHILIPPINES HAS DIMINISHED.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to continue heading North to NNE

for the next 24 to 36 hours. The cold-dry air from the NE Monsoon is

forecast to enter DOLPHIN's circulation - thus weakening the storm until

its death. The 3 to 4-day long-range forecast still shows DOLPHIN turning

more NE'ly as it dissipates over water on Saturday Dec 20 along the the

Northeasternmost part of the Philippine Sea.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation remains at sea and is not affecting any
land areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) TUE 16 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 16.7º N...LONGITUDE 130.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 760 KM (410 NM) NE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 865 KM (467 NM) NE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 910 KM (490 NM) ENE OF CASIGURAN, AURORA, PH

DISTANCE 4: 960 KM (518 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 160 KM/HR (85 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 195 KM/HR (105 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 4-5 FEET (1.2-1.7 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 959 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NORTH @ 09 KM/HR (05 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 685 KM (370 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 27 FEET (8.2 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 PM PST TUE DEC 16
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 06Z TUE DEC 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 96 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.3N 130.8E / 160-195 KPH / NNE @ 07 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 18.1N 131.0E / 150-185 KPH / NNE @ 07 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 19.4N 132.0E / 120-150 KPH / NE @ 07 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 19 DECEMBER: 20.4N 133.5E / 85-100 KPH / NE @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 16 DECEMBER POSITION: 16.4N 130.6E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK TO THE NORTH
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE SEEN SLIGHT WEAKENING
IN THE SYSTEM FROM MAXIMUM DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.0 (90
KNOTS) TO INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5 (85 KNOTS). DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDS CONTINUE TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A
MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN SSMI AND AMSU IMAGERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST, AND SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE FORMATION OF
A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE ABOVE THE SYSTEM HAS OCCURRED...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.5N 130.5E / NNW @ 07 KPH / 130 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TY DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm