Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 27W (UNNAMED)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W [UNNAMED]

Issued: 1:00 AM MANILA TIME (17:00 GMT) FRI 12 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #005 / GUAM DOPPLER RADAR / T2K XTRAPLOT
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (UNNAMED) JUST PASSED CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF

GUAM YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES TO RACE FARTHER AWAY FROM

THE ISLAND.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Bicol Region down to Northern Mindanao should

closely monitor the progress of 27W.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 27W is expected to continue on its fast WNW to west-

ward track for the next 3 to 5 days...becoming a minimal Tropical Storm

(65-kph) later today. It shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility

(PAR) on Saturday morning Dec 13. The 4 to 5-day long-range forecast shows

27W weakening into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it approaches the Eastern

Coast of the Bicol Region and Northern Samar on Tuesday morning Dec 16...

dissipating into a Tropical Disturbance (LPA) off Albay Tuesday evening as

cool, dry NE winds enters 27W's circulation. Watch for more forecast out-

look on this depression soon.

+ EFFECTS: 27W's circulation has become more elliptical and compact as its

rainbands starting to leave the Mariana Island Chain. These bands is expec-

ted to bring light to moderate to some isolated heavy rains with passing

strong squalls...wind gusts not in excess of 65 kph is possible across the

island chain today. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm is

possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to

75 mm near the center of 27W.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 12:00 AM MANILA TIME (16:00 GMT) FRI 12 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.0º N...LONGITUDE 142.5º E
DISTANCE 1: 255 KM (138 NM) WEST OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 415 KM (225 NM) WSW OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 620 KM (335 NM) NE OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM

DISTANCE 4: 810 KM (438 NM) EAST OF P.A.R.
DISTANCE 5: 1,970 KM (1,065 NM) EAST OF BICOL REGION, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 31 KM/HR (17 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 300 KM (160 NM)/SMALL
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 PM MANILA TIME FRI DEC 12
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 AM (00 GMT) 12 DECEMBER: 13.7N 140.3E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 24 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 12 DECEMBER: 14.1N 137.7E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 20 KPH

8 PM (12 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 14.0N 133.4E / 45-65 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.7N 129.7E / 45-65 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 11 DECEMBER POSITION: 12.9N 143.2E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY WHILE
TRACKING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
METSAT IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. A 110828Z
37V SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONSOLIDATED
SLIGHTLY, AND NOW SHOWS EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO
ORGANIZE TO THE SOUTH AND WRAP INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED LIMITED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...(more)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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