Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD 27W (UNNAMED)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W [UNNAMED]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) THU 11 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #003 / GUAM DOPPLER RADAR / T2K XTRAPLOT
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (UNNAMED) NEWLY-FORMED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN

MARIANA ISLANDS...APPROACHING GUAM...MAY PASS CLOSE TO THE SOUTH OF

THE ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

*Interests in Southern Marianas and Eastern Philippines should closely monitor the progress of 27W.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: 27W is expected to continue on its fast WNW to west-
ward track for the next 3 to 5 days...becoming a minimal Tropical Storm

(65-kph) tomorrow. It shall enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility

(PAR) on Saturday evening Dec 13. The 4 to 5-day long-range forecast

shows 27W weakening into a Tropical Depression (TD) as it approaches

the Eastern Coast of the Bicol Region and Samar Tuesday morning Dec 16.

Watch for more forecast outlook on this depression soon.

+ EFFECTS: 27W's developing rain bands spreading across the Mariana

Island Chain. These bands is expected to bring light to moderate to

some isolated heavy rains with passing strong squalls...wind gusts

not in excess of 75 kph is possible across the island chain today.

1-day rainfall accumulations of 25 up to 50 mm is possible along its

rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 75 mm near the

center of 27W.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 11 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 12.8º N...LONGITUDE 145.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 85 KM (45 NM) SE OF HAGATNA, GUAM, CNMI
DISTANCE 2: 270 KM (146 NM) SSE OF SAIPAN, CNMI
DISTANCE 3: 865 KM (467 NM) NE OF COLONIA, YAP, FSM

DISTANCE 4: 1,115 KM (602 NM) EAST OF P.A.R.
DISTANCE 5: 2,275 KM (1,228 NM) EAST OF BICOL REGION, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 40 KM/HR (22 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: GUAM-SOUTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 350 KM (190 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 16 FEET (4.8 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME THU DEC 11
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 11 DECEMBER: 12.8N 144.5E / 55-65 KPH / W @ 28 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 12 DECEMBER: 13.3N 141.4E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 22 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 13 DECEMBER: 13.9N 136.5E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 17 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.7N 132.7E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 15 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 11 DECEMBER POSITION: 12.5N 147.3E.
^TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER
THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED A
WEAK SYSTEM WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION, WEAK BANDING AND A DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LATEST MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE LLCC MAY HAVE OPENED BACK UP INTO A MORE WAVE-LIKE
FEATURE AND SHOWED NO EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT E.G., NO WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING
INTO THE CENTER. INSTEAD DEEP CONVECTION IS FLARING IN A LINEAR
FASHION NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING RAPIDLY
WESTWARD AT 15-17 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED LIMITED
AND MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...(more)

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD 27W (UNNAMED)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm