Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) intensifies...heading WNW [Update #009]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #009

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) MON 15 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #018 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) STRENGTHENS TO NEAR TYPHOON STATUS...SLOWS DOWN

WHILE OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to turn NW within the next 12 to

24 hours and then turn abruptly towards the NNW by Wednesday morning Dec

17. The system may still reach minimal typhoon status later today if it

does intensify. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN weake-

ning rapidly into a weak tropical storm as it heads towards the North

in response to a passing frontal system off SE China which breaks the

high pressure ridge - allowing the northerly track of the storm. It

shall then weaken rapidly into a Tropical Depression by early Saturday

morning, Dec 20 - as cool dry air from the expected Northeast Monsoonal

Surge affects DOLPHIN's circulation. *Alternate Forecast Scenario:
There's a slim chance that DOLPHIN shall continue tracking West to WNW

passing more or less 200 km to the north of Catanduanes-Camarines Area

on Wednesday or Thursday. This scenario is likely if the developing

frontal system off SE China is not strong enough to break the high

pressure ridge north of the storm.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation remains organized with dual poleward

& equatorial outflows. Its rain bands remains at sea and is not yet

affecting any major islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations

of 75 up to 100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated

accumulations of up to 250 mm near the center of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 AM MANILA TIME (22:00 GMT) MON 15 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 14.0º N...LONGITUDE 130.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 660 KM (355 NM) ENE OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 730 KM (395 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 760 KM (410 NM) ENE OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 780 KM (420 NM) ENE OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 810 KM (438 NM) EAST OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 140 KM/HR (75 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 978 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 13 KM/HR (07 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHERN PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 685 KM (370 NM)/LARGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 18 FEET (5.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 AM PST MON DEC 15
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 18Z SUN DEC 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 14.5N 129.7E / 110-140 KPH / NW @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.4N 128.8E / 100-130 KPH / NW @ 09 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.3N 127.7E / 85-100 KPH / N @ 07 KPH
2 AM (18 GMT) 18 DECEMBER: 18.9N 127.4E / 65-85 KPH / N @ 05 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 DECEMBER POSITION: 13.9N 130.7E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS SEEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF
WEAKENING FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPING. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
AND INFRARED IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING MORE
SYMMETRIC AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TRACK HAS
INDICATED AN EQUATORWARD DIP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, BUT RECENT FIXES
HAVE INDICATED TS 27W HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST
06 HOURS...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 13.8N 130.8E / WEST @ 11 KPH / 95 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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