Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) a little weaker... [Update #008]

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #008

Name: TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN [ULYSSES/27W/0822]

Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 14 DECEMBER 2008
Source: US JTWC WARNING #016 / T2K XTRAPOLATION
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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DOLPHIN (ULYSSES) A LITTLE WEAKER...HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS

THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE SEA.

*Residents and visitors along Eastern Philippines from Aurora, Quezon, Bicol down to Northern
Mindanao should closely monitor the progress of DOLPHIN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: DOLPHIN is expected to maintain its westward course

within next 12 to 24 hours and then turn abruptly towards the NW tomo-

rrow evening, heading more NNW by Tuesday Dec 16. The system is forecast

to reach minimal typhoon status tomorrow morning before weakening into a

tropical storm. The 3 to 5-day long-range forecast shows DOLPHIN conti-

nuing drifting to the NNW in response to a passing frontal system off SE

China which breaks the high pressure ridge - allowing the northerly track

of the storm. It shall then weaken rapidly into a Tropical Depression on

Friday afternoon, Dec 19 - as cool dry air from the expected Northeast

Monsoonal Surge affects DOLPHIN's circulation. *Alternate Forecast
Scenario: There's a slim chance that DOLPHIN shall continue tracking

West to WNW passing more or less 200 km to the north of Catanduanes-

Camarines Area on Tuesday or Wednesday. This scenario is likely if the

developing frontal system off SE China is not strong enough to break

the high pressure ridge north of the storm.

+ EFFECTS: DOLPHIN's circulation a little disorganized but remains radial

with dual poleward & equatorial outflows. Its rain bands is not yet

affecting any major islands at this time. 1-day rainfall accumulations

of 75 up to 100 mm is possible along its rain bands...with isolated

accumulations of up to 250 mm near the center of DOLPHIN.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 6:00 PM MANILA TIME (10:00 GMT) SUN 14 DEC 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 13.5º N...LONGITUDE 131.4º E
DISTANCE 1: 765 KM (413 NM) EAST OF VIRAC, CATANDUANES, PH
DISTANCE 2: 835 KM (450 NM) ENE OF LEGAZPI CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 865 KM (467 NM) EAST OF IRIGA CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 885 KM (478 NM) EAST OF NAGA CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 920 KM (497 NM) ESE OF DAET, CAMARINES NORTE, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METER)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 17 KM/HR (09 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: PHILIPPINE SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 590 KM (320 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 17 FEET (5.1 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKMAP (FOR PUBLIC): 6 PM PST SUN DEC 14
VIEW JTWC TRACKMAP (FOR SHIPPING): 06Z SUN DEC 14
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 13.0N 130.6E / 120-150 KPH / W @ 13 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 15 DECEMBER: 13.1N 129.2E / 120-150 KPH / NW @ 15 KPH

2 PM (06 GMT) 16 DECEMBER: 15.7N 127.4E / 100-130 KPH / NNW @ 07 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 17 DECEMBER: 17.2N 127.1E / 95-120 KPH / NNW @ 07 KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 DECEMBER POSITION: 13.2N 131.9E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (DOLPHIN) HAS TRACKED ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST-
WARD DIRECTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE POLEWARD SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BEGUN
TO ELONGATE IN A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION,
POSSIBLY INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE STARTED TO BE
ADVERSELY INFLUENCED BY A MIDLEVEL TROUGH...(more)

>> DOLPHIN, meaning: A Chinese white dolphin which lives in HK
waters, and also a mascot of HK. Name contributed by:
Hong Kong, China.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 PM (06 GMT) 14 DECEMBER: 13.6N 132.5E / WEST @ 15 KPH / 85 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)

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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:

> Image source: Wunderground.com (http://www.wunderground.com/)

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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS DOLPHIN (ULYSSES/27W)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

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