Sunday, November 09, 2008

TS MAYSAK (QUINTA) - Update #006


Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #006
Name: TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK [QUINTA/24W/0819] 
Issued: 7:00 PM MANILA TIME (11:00 GMT) SUN 09 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) WARNING #11
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.
_____________________________________________________________________________
 
 
TROPICAL STORM QUINTA (MAYSAK) DECELERATES AND WEAKENS..BEGINS ITS
CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA...MAY RE-ENTER THE PHILIPPINE
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR).

*Interests in Western Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MAYSAK (QUINTA).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAYSAK is expected to undergo a unique, clockwise
loop off its track within 24 hours and continue to lose strength across
hostile environment. The 3-day medium range forecast shows MAYSAK com-
pleting its clockwise loop after being left behind by the frontal system
off Taiwan and to be pushed by a developing high pressure steering ridge
off China towards the South and SSW. MAYSAK shall weaken and dissipate
over the southern waters of the South China Sea on November 12.

+ EFFECTS: MAYSAK's eastern outermost rain bands is now affecting Western
Luzon (from Ilocos down to Mindoro). These bands is expected to bring
widespread rains with passing moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts
not in excess of 55 kph. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must
remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods,
mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about
by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.
Possible coastal Storm Surge flooding of up to 3 feet above normal tide
levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves...is possible
near the center of MAYSAK. Very minimal damage is likely on this type of
storm surge.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon
enhanced by TS MAYSAK (QUINTA) is affecting the islands of Batanes-Babuyan
-Calayan, Taiwan and SE China. This wind system is expected to begin
affecting Extreme Northern Luzon tonight until tomorrow. Cloudy skies with
light to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour & strong NE'ly
winds not exceeding 75 km/hr can be expected along the affected areas.
Landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods
are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks,
low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.
 
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes 
every 06 to 12 hours!

_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 5:00 PM MANILA TIME (09:00 GMT) SUN 09 NOV 2008 
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 18.3º N...LONGITUDE 116.2º
DISTANCE 1: 450 KM (245
NM) WNW OF VIGAN CITY, PH 
DISTANCE 2: 460 KM (250 NM) WEST OF LAOAG CITY, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 95 KM/HR (50 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 120 KM/HR (65 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: 
TROPICAL STORM 
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 985 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 05 KM/HR (03 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/
AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 12 FEET (3.6 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 
2 PM MANILA TIME SUN NOV 09
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 NOVEMBER: 18.1N 116.3E / 85-100 KPH / SOUTH @ 07 KPH 
2 PM (06 GMT) 10 NOVEMBER: 17.3N 116.2E / 75-95 KPH / SSW @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 11 NOVEMBER: 14.7N 115.1E / 45-65 KPH / SSW @ 13 KPH
2 PM (06 GMT) 12 NOVEMBER: 12.2N 113.7E / 35-55 KPH / -- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 2 PM (06 GMT) 09 NOVEMBER POSITION: 18.3N 116.2E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) MAYSAK (24W) HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
LOW-TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE DYNAMIC MODELS, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR, CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING, SLOW
MOVEMENT, AND AN EVENTUAL SOUTHWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF
THESE STAGES VARIES AND REPRESENTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
...
(more)

>> MAYSAK, meaning: A kind of treeName contributed by: Cambodia.
_____________________________________________________________________________
_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:


_______________________________________________________________________________________

 
RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:


> Image source:  NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:
 
  ^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their 
      latest warning.
 
  * - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals, 
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these 
      signals, visit:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

 ** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near 
      its center.

__________________________________________________________________________________________

>>
To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms 
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

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For the complete details on TS MAYSAK (QUINTA)...go visit
our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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