Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD TONYO (96W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #001

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO [96W]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) FRI 14 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #003
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO (96W), A NEWLY-F0RMED SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPED

OFF THE PHILIPPINE SEA LAST NIGHT...NOW APPROACHING THE COAST OF

SURIGAO DEL SUR...CIRCULATION BECOMING DISORGANIZED. SCATTERED WIDESPREAD
RAINS WITH ACCOMPANYING SQUALLS (AKA. "SUBASKO") WITHIN ITS RAINBANDS
ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MINDANAO AND

SOUTHERN VISAYAS.

*Interests along the Northern Mindanao and Visayas should closely monitor the progress of TONYO.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TONYO is expected to continue tracking West to WNW

within the next 12 to 24 hours...shall start crossing Surigao Del Sur

and Agusan Provinces this afternoon...and pass between Bukidnon-Misamis

Oriental tonight. TONYO shall be off Bohol Sea tomorrow morning and shall

pass to the southern coast of Negros Island before noon tomorrow...near

Puerto Princesa City or over Central Palawan before noon on Sunday Nov

16 and over the South China Sea on Monday morning Nov 17.

+ EFFECTS: TONYO's circulation has remained a little disorganized due to

its interaction with Mindanao's land mass...its scattered western rainbands

continues to spread across Eastern, Northern and Central Mindanao and por-

tions of Southern Visayas. These bands is expected to bring widespread

rains with passing moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts not in

excess of 60 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm is possi-

ble along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250 mm near

the center of TONYO. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must remain

alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods,

mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by

this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon

enhanced by TD TONYO is currently affecting Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region

& Visayas. Partly cloudy to cloudy skies with light to moderate passing

rains w/ at times heavy downpour & NE'ly winds not exceeding 45 km/hr

can be expected along the affected areas. Landslides, mudslides, mudflows

(lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely to occur along steep

mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of

the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) FRI 14 NOV 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 8.3º N...LONGITUDE 126.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 55 KM (30 NM) EAST OF BISLIG CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 160 KM (85 NM) SE OF BUTUAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 200 KM (108 NM) EAST OF MALAYBALAY CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 220 KM (120 NM) SSE OF SURIGAO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 5: 245 KM (132 NM) ESE OF CAGAYAN DE ORO CITY, PH
DISTANCE 6: 360 KM (195 NM) SE OF TAGBILARAN CITY, PH

DISTANCE 7: 385 KM (208 NM) ESE OF DIPOLOG CITY, PH

DISTANCE 8: 390 KM (210 NM) SE OF CEBU CITY, PH

DISTANCE 9: 400 KM (215 NM) ESE OF DUMAGUETE CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 60 KM/HR (33 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 19 KM/HR (10 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SURIGAO DEL SUR-AGUSAN PROVINCES AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 11 AM MANILA TIME FRI NOV 14

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - SURIGAO DEL NORTE, DINAGAT ISLAND, SURIGAO DEL SUR, SIARGAO

ISLANDS, AGUSAN DEL NORTE, AGUSAN DEL SUR, DAVAO DEL NORTE,

DAVAO ORIENTAL, DAVAO DEL SUR, MISAMIS ORIENTAL, CAMIGUIN,

LANAO DEL NORTE, LANAO DEL SUR, BUKIDNON, NORTH COTABATO,

MAGUINDANAO, SULTAN KUDARAT, & SOUTH COTABATO.

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 AM (00 GMT) 15 NOVEMBER: 9.0N 123.4E

8 AM (00 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER: 9.7N 119.4E

8 AM (00 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER: 10.1N 115.3E

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 14 NOVEMBER POSITION: 8.2N 127.4E.
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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