Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS MAYSAK (QUINTA)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TROPICAL STORM MAYSAK [QUINTA/24W/0819]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 09 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) WARNING #09
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM QUINTA (MAYSAK) SHOOTS UP TO 100 KM/HR AS IT TURNS

NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF

TAIWAN...MAY THREATEN WESTERN LUZON.

*Interests in Western Luzon should closely monitor the progress of MAYSAK (QUINTA).

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAYSAK is expected to create a unique, clockwise

loop off its track within 24 hours and may even reach typhoon strength

if it does continues to intensify. The 3 to 4-day long-range forecast

shows MAYSAK heading south to south-southwestward after being left

behind by the frontal system and to be pushed by a developing high

pressure ridge off China. MAYSAK shall dissipate over the southern

waters of the South China Sea on November 12 or 13.

+ EFFECTS: MAYSAK's rainbands remains over the South China Sea and not

affecting any part of the Philippines.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon

enhanced by TS MAYSAK (QUINTA) is affecting the islands of Batanes-

Babuyan, Taiwan and SE China. Cloudy skies with light to moderate

passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour & strong NE'ly winds not

exceeding 75 km/hr can be expected along the affected areas. Landslides,

mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely

to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) SUN 09 NOV 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.6º N...LONGITUDE 115.9º E
DISTANCE 1: 475 KM (255 NM) WEST OF VIGAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 500 KM (270 NM) WSW OF LAOAG CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 100 KM/HR (55 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 130 KM/HR (70 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL STORM
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0-3 FEET (0-0.9 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 982 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NE @ 15 KM/HR (08 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 465 KM (250 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 14 FEET (4.2 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SUN NOV 09
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 PM (06 GMT) 09 NOVEMBER: 17.8N 116.6E / 110-140 KPH / SSE @ 07 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 10 NOVEMBER: 17.1N 116.9E / 100-130 KPH / SOUTH @ 11 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 11 NOVEMBER: 14.7N 116.3E / 65-85 KPH / SW @ 13 KPH

2 AM (18 GMT) 12 NOVEMBER: 12.6N 114.4E / 45-65 KPH / SW @ 13 KPH

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 NOVEMBER POSITION: 17.6N 115.7E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
DUE TO IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED MORE POLEWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFDN AND WBAR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING, QUASI-STATIONARY OR SLOW MOVEMENT, AND AN
EVENTUAL SOUTHWARD TRACK. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THESE STAGES VARIES
AND REPRESENTS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE...(more)

>> MAYSAK, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Cambodia.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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