Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD TONYO (96W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO [96W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SAT 15 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #006 / T2K SAT DATA ANALYSIS
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO (96W) HAS CROSSED NORTHERN MINDANAO AND

SOUTHERN VISAYAS YESTERDAY...NOW OFF THE SEA OF SULU...A MUCH

STRONGER SECONDARY CIRCULATION WEST OF ZAMBOANGA CITY (6.6N 120.8E)

MAY LIKELY BE THE NEW NEAR-SURFACE CENTER IF CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION

OCCURS.

*Interests in Palawan should closely monitor the progress of TONYO.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TONYO is expected to maintain its WNW track for the

next 2 to 3 days...it shall cross Central Palawan later tonight, passing

just north of Puerto Princesa City. The 48-hour forecast shows TONYO

moving out into the South China Sea.

+ EFFECTS: After interacting with the terrain of Northern Mindanao,

TONYO's circulation has shrunked dramatically, but a new and much

stronger circulation has been expanding west of Zamboanga City...now

spreading across much of Sulu Sea, Borneo and Western Mindanao. These

bands is expected to bring scattered, widespread rains with passing

moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts not in excess of 50 kph.

1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm is possible along its

rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250 mm near the

center of TONYO. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must

remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash

floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains

brought about by this system. Precautionary measures must be

initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon

enhanced by TD TONYO and a Monsoon Trough (ITCZ) is currently affecting

Eastern Luzon, Bicol Region and Eastern Visayas. Partly cloudy to cloudy

skies with light to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour &

NE'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected along the affected

areas. Landslides, mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening

flash floods are likely to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes,

river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 5:00 AM MANILA TIME (21:00 GMT) SAT 15 NOV 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 9.4º N...LONGITUDE 122.2º E
DISTANCE 1: 120 KM (65 NM) WEST OF DUMAGUETE CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 150 KM (80 NM) NW OF DIPOLOG CITY, PH
DISTANCE 3: 150 KM (80 NM) SSW OF ILOILO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 210 KM (113 NM) SSE OF CUYO ISLAND, PH
DISTANCE 5: 385 KM (208 NM) EAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA CITY, PALAWAN, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 60 KM/HR (33 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 22 KM/HR (12 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SULU SEA-PALAWAN AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 8 FEET (2.4 METERS)
VIEW T2K TRACKING MAP: 5 AM MANILA TIME SAT NOV 15

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - PALAWAN, ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE & SOUTHERN NEGROS.

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER: 10.2N 118.0E

2 AM (18 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER: 11.0N 113.2E

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 15 NOVEMBER POSITION: 9.4N 122.8E.
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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