Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD TONYO (26W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO [26W]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) SUN 16 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: JTWC WARNING #001 / T2K EXTRAPOLATE ANALYSIS
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONYO (26W) HAS MOVED OUT OF THE PHILIPPINE AREA

OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR) AFTER CROSSING SOUTHERN PALAWAN EARLY LAST

NIGHT...NOW ACCELERATING WESTWARD PASSING ACROSS THE SPRATLY ISLANDS

...AIMING FOR SOUTHERN VIETNAM.

*Interests in Southern Vietnam should closely monitor the progress of TONYO.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: TONYO is expected to maintain its Westward track

for the next 5 days...may reach tropical storm status later today and

make landfall over Southern Vietnam tomorrow evening, Nov 17 - just east

of Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon). The core is expected to pass very

near to the south of Ho Chi Minh around 3 to 4 AM on Tuesday, Nov 18.

The 3 to 5-day long range forecast shows TONYO traversing the Gulf of

Thailand as a minimal tropical storm on Wednesday morning, Nov 19...and

shall cut across Isthmus of Kra Wednesday afternoon...moving into

Andaman Sea off Indian Ocean on Thursday Nov 20, changing its identity

from a Tropical Storm to a CYCLONE (term usually used for tropical

cyclones off Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal).

+ EFFECTS: TONYO's circulation remains over the South China Sea, along

the Spratlys...its eastern rainbands no longer affecting Southern Pala-

wan...western rainbands shall reach Southern Vietnam later tonight or

tomorrow morning. These bands is expected to bring scattered, widespread

rains with passing moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts not in

excess of 75 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm is

possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to 250

mm near the center of TONYO. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes

must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash

floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if

necessary.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) SUN 16 NOV 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 10.4º N...LONGITUDE 114.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 85 KM (45 NM) SSE OF PAGASA ISLAND, SPRATLYS
DISTANCE 2: 455 KM (245 NM) WNW OF PUERTO PRINCESA CITY, PALAWAN, PH
DISTANCE 3: 625 KM (338 NM) ESE OF NHA TRANG CITY, VIETNAM

DISTANCE 4: 865 KM (468 NM) ESE OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 55 KM/HR (30 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1000 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 30 KM/HR (16 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTHERN VIETNAM
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 400 KM (215 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW FINAL T2K TRACKING MAP: 12 PM MANILA TIME SUN NOV 16
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER: 10.4N 113.4E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 22 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 17 NOVEMBER: 10.6N 111.0E / 75-95 KPH / W @ 22 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 18 NOVEMBER: 10.5N 105.9E / 55-75 KPH / W @ 24 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 19 NOVEMBER: 10.0N 100.6E / 65-85 KPH / W @ 26 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 16 NOVEMBER POSITION: 10.1N 115.6E.
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RECENT T2K TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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