Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD MAYSAK (QUINTA)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #007

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAYSAK [QUINTA/24W/0819]

Issued: 1:00 PM MANILA TIME (05:00 GMT) MON 10 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER (JTWC) WARNING #17
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

_____________________________________________________________________________

MAYSAK (QUINTA) HEADING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SLOWLY AS IT RE-ENTERED THE

PHILIPPINE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)...DOWNGRADED INTO A WEAK

TROPICAL DEPRESSION...EASTERN RAINBANDS AFFECTING WESTERN LUZON

INCLUDING METRO MANILA AND MINDORO.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: MAYSAK is under moderate to strong upper-level winds

(vertical wind shear) which is destroying the depression's upper-level

structure (located around 30,000 to 40,000 feet)...expected to continue

moving SSE with a Southerly to SSW'ly turn later. MAYSAK is forecast to

dissipate into a tropical disturbance (LPA) within the next 12 to 24

hours while moving towards Spratly Islands.

+ EFFECTS: Its eastern rainbands continues to move away from MAYSAK's

low-level circulation center (LLCC) towards the East to ENE affecting the

Island of Luzon, becoming more intense along the Western parts of Luzon

(from Ilocos down to Mindoro). These bands is expected to be absorbed by

a passing frontal system located just east of Taiwan and will bring wide-

spread rains with passing moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts not

in excess of 70 kph. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes must

remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash floods,

mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about

by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Moderate to strong Northeast (NE) Monsoon

enhanced by TD MAYSAK (QUINTA) is affecting the islands of Batanes-Babuyan-

Calayan, Northern Luzon, SE China and Taiwan. Cloudy skies with light to

moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour & strong NE'ly winds not

exceeding 65 km/hr can be expected along the affected areas. Landslides,

mudslides, mudflows (lahars) and life-threatening flash floods are likely

to occur along steep mountain/volcanic slopes, river banks, low-lying &

flood-prone areas of the affected areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
_____________________________________________________________________________

TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) MON 10 NOV 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 15.3º N...LONGITUDE 116.6º E
DISTANCE 1: 405 KM (218 NM) WSW OF DAGUPAN CITY, PH
DISTANCE 2: 365 KM (197 NM) WEST OF IBA, ZAMBALES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 400 KM (217 NM) WNW OF SUBIC BAY/OLONGAPO, ZAMBALES, PH

DISTANCE 4: 480 KM (260 NM) WNW OF MANILA, PH
MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1002 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: SSE @ 11 KM/HR (06 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 15 FEET (4.5 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME MON NOV 10
PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*: NONE

12, 24 HR. FORECAST:
8 PM (12 GMT) 10 NOVEMBER: 14.5N 116.9E / 35-55 KPH / SOUTH @ 15 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 11 NOVEMBER: 12.9N 116.8E / 35-55 KPH / --- @ -- KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 10 NOVEMBER POSITION: 15.6N 116.5E.
^ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 092213Z 37H WINDSAT IMAGE
REVEAL AN ELONGATED AND WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) EMBEDDED ALONG THE TIGHTLY CURVED AXIS OF A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ORIENTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF VIETNAM THROUGH
THE LUZON STRAIT. THIS FEATURE IS CONFIRMED BY A 092215Z WINDSAT
SCATTEROMETRY PASS WHICH SHOWS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY GRADIENT FLOW
POLEWARD OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
EQUATORWARD SIDE. THIS REGION IS ALSO EXPERIENCING EXTREME VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING CHINA
WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND FURTHER DEGRADE THE SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS, DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS AND TIGHT TROUGHING
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF TD 24W.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING
CENTER (NAVMARFCSTCEN). THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION...(more)

>> MAYSAK, meaning: A kind of tree. Name contributed by: Cambodia.
_____________________________________________________________________________

PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 2 AM (18 GMT) 10 NOVEMBER: 16.0N 116.1E / SOUTH SLOWLY / 55 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

_____________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM TRACKING CHART:

_______________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
__________________________________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

:: Typhoon2000.com (T2K) Mobile >> Powered by: Synermaxx
Receive the latest 6-hrly storm updates directly to your mobile phones! To get:
Send T2K TYPHOON to: 2800 (GLOBE & TM) | 216 (SMART & TNT) | 2288 (SUN)
Note: Globe & Smart charges P2.50 per message, while Sun at P2.00.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD MAYSAK (QUINTA)...go visit
our website @:

> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com

> http://www.typhoon2000.ph

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm