Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TD ROLLY (94W)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #002

Name: TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROLLY [94W]

Issued: 7:00 AM MANILA TIME (23:00 GMT) SUN 09 NOVEMBER 2008
Source: PAGASA SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN #005
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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ROLLY (94W) BARELY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS MOST OF ITS RAIN CLOUDS

DISSIPATES...NOW OFF THE ISLANDS OF THE CALAMIAN.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: ROLLY's life is at stake as it encounters strong shear

from the southern outflow-flanks of the much powerful MAYSAK (located off

the South China Sea)...The system is likely to be absorbed into the sou-

thern portion of MAYSAK if it does continue on its WNW track. Satellite

signature on this system no longer shows a distinct TD characteristics,

therefore a possible dissipation of ROLLY is most likely today.

+ EFFECTS: ROLLY's dissipating circulation has become scattered..just

affecting the small islands of the Calamian, Mindoro, Northern Palawan

...with some displaced eastern bands along Romblon-Tablas-Boracay Islands

including Panay Island. These scattered bands is expected to bring wide-

spread rains with passing moderate to strong squalls...with wind gusts

not in excess of 55 kph. 1-day rainfall accumulations of 50 up to 150 mm

is possible along its rain bands...with isolated accumulations of up to

200 mm along mountain slopes. Residents in low-lying areas & steep slopes

must remain alert & seek evacuation for possible life-threatening flash

floods, mudslides & landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought

about by this system. Precautionary measures must be initiated if

necessary.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 4:00 AM MANILA TIME (20:00 GMT) SUN 09 NOV 2008
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 11.4º N...LONGITUDE 119.8º E
DISTANCE 1: 80 KM (43 NM) SSW OF CORON, PALAWAN, PH
DISTANCE 2: 140 KM (75 NM) WNW OF CUYO ISLAND, PH
DISTANCE 3: 235 KM (127 NM) WSW OF BORACAY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 170 KM (93 NM) SW OF SAN JOSE, OCCIDENTAL MINDORO, PH
DISTANCE 5: 225 KM (122 NM) NNE OF PUERTO PRINCESA CITY, PH

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 45 KM/HR (25 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 65 KM/HR (35 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COASTAL STORM SURGE HEIGHT: 0 FEET (0 METERS)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 1005 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: SOUTH CHINA SEA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 10 FEET (3.0 METERS)
VIEW PAGASA TRACKING MAP: 2 AM MANILA TIME SUN NOV 09

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - MINDORO, LUBANG ISLAND, NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP &
CUYO ISLAND.

24, 48 HR. FORECAST:
2 AM (18 GMT) 10 NOVEMBER: 13.6N 116.3E

2 AM (18 GMT) 11 NOVEMBER: 16.4N 114.4E

REMARKS: 2 AM (18 GMT) 09 NOVEMBER POSITION: 11.2N 120.2E.

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RECENT PAGASA TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: NOAA Satellite Service (http://www.noaa.gov/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. For more explanations on these
      signals, visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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