Bushman's Typhoon Blog: Typhoon KALMAEGI (HELEN)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #005

Name: TYPHOON KALMAEGI [HELEN/08W/0807]

Issued: 12:00 PM MANILA TIME (04:00 GMT) THU 17 JULY 2008
Source: JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING #012
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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KALMAEGI (HELEN) rapidly becomes the 6th Typhoon of 2008...accelerating

NNW towards Taiwan...threat to Philippines diminishes.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KALMAEGI is expected to continue moving NNW to Northward

for the next 24 hours, passing over the NE tip of Taiwan tonight and is

likely to reach Category 3 strength w/ forecast wind speeds of 185 km/hr.

The core shall pass some 50 km. to the east of Taiwan around midnight.

KALMAEGI shall move into the East China Sea, making landfall over Eastern

China or about 65 km. NE of Wenzhou City tomorrow evening. The 3 to 5-day

long-range forecast shows the system continuing crossing the Eastern Coast-

line Eastern China early Saturday morning (July 19) and shall turn abruptly

towards the NE across the East China-Yellow Sea area and shall make its 2nd

landfall over South Korea as a downgraded Tropical Storm Sunday afternoon.

It shall then become Extratropical upon entering the Sea of Japan.

+ EFFECTS: KALMAEGI's main circulation is now approaching Taiwan, with its

inner rain bands affecting the Eastern part of Taiwan. Heavy rains of up 400

mm and winds not exceeding 100 km/hr can be expected along the inner bands.

Very rough seas is expected to prevail along the coastal areas of the affec-

ted areas. Typhoon conditions can be expected over NE Taiwan and Yaeyama

Islands as the Eye and its Core (Eyewall) makes a passby later tonight.

Meanwhile, the rest of Taiwan, Yaeyama Islands, Batanes-Calayan-Babuyan

Group of Islands remains under the effects of its Outer Rain Bands. Rains

and winds not exceeding 50 km/hr can be expected along the outer bands. Re-

sidents in low-lying areas must seek higher grounds for possible flooding &

landslides due to the anticipated heavy rains brought about by this system.

Precautionary measures must be initiated if necessary. Coastal Storm Surge

flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and

dangerous battering waves can be expected near and to the north of Kalmaegi's

projected path particularly when the system moves over Yaeyama Islands and

the over NE tip of Taiwan. Minimal damage is possible on this type of storm

surge. Far-fetched storm surge is possible along coastal areas of Eastern

China with surf reaching 1 feet at most.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently enhanced by

TS KALMAEGI (HELEN) prevailing across Metro Manila, Western Luzon & Western

Visayas becoming more intense along NW Luzon. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy skies

with possible light to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy downpour &

SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected. Landslides, mudflows

(lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/volcano slopes,

river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected areas. Strong

ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting rest of Visayas and Mindanao bringing

scattered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the afternoon or

evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 AM MANILA TIME (03:00 GMT) 17 JULY
LOCATION OF EYE: LATITUDE 22.7º N...LONGITUDE 122.7º E
DISTANCE 1: 255 KM (138 NM) NNE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 2: 185 KM (100 NM) SE OF HUALIEN, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 3: 280 KM (150 NM) SSE OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN

DISTANCE 4: 625 KM (337 NM) SSE OF WENZHOU, CHINA

MAX WINDS [1-MIN AVG]: 150 KM/HR (80 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 185 KM/HR (100 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: CATEGORY ONE (1)
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 963 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: NNW @ 20 KM/HR (11 KTS)
GENERAL DIRECTION: NORTHEASTERN TAIWAN
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 520 KM (280 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 24 FEET (7.3 METERS)
VIEW TRACKING MAP: 8 AM MANILA TIME THU JULY 17
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#01 - BATANES AND CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS.

12, 24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:

8 PM (12 GMT) 17 JULY: 24.5N 122.2E / 185-230 KPH / NNW @ 20 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 18 JULY: 26.6N 121.4E / 195-240 KPH / N @ 17 KPH

8 AM (00 GMT) 19 JULY: 30.3N 122.0E / 140-165 KPH / NNE @ 20 KPH
8 AM (00 GMT) 20 JUNE: 33.7N 125.1E / 100-130 KPH / NE @ 20 KPH

REMARKS: 8 AM (00 GMT) 17 JULY POSITION: 22.5N 123.0E.
^TYPHOON (TY) 08W HAS CONTINUED TRACKING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. SLOW AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION HAS GIVEN
WAY TO A PERIOD OF RAPID DEEPENING, WITH THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUS-
TAINED WIND SPEED JUMPING FROM 60 KNOTS TO 80 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06
HOURS IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TY 08W IS SHROUDED
BY AN IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. THE CYCLONE HAS
EXHIBITED A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, INCLUDING A 8:00 AM JULY 17 SSMIS PASS...(more)

>> KALMAEGI {pronounced: kal~meegi}, meaning: Seagull.
Name contributed by: DPR Korea.
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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 AM (02 GMT) 17 JULY: 22.6N 123.0E / NNW @ 17 KPH / 110 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT JTWC TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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