Bushman's Typhoon Blog: TS KALMAEIGI (HELEN)

Typhoon2000 STORM UPDATE #003

Name: TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI [HELEN/08W/0807]

Issued: 12:00 AM MANILA TIME (16:00 GMT) WED 16 JULY 2008
Source: JMA TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (11 PM JULY 15)
Note: Kindly refer to your country's official warnings or bulletins. This update is for additional information purposes only.

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TROPICAL STORM KALMAEGI (HELEN) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION, STOPS

ANEW...NEARS THE COAST OF CAGAYAN. ENHANCED SOUTHWEST (SW) MONSOON

CONTINUES TO BRING "ON-AND-OFF" RAINS AND WINDS ACROSS METRO MANILA,

LUZON INCLUDING SOUTHERN QUEZON & BICOL REGION.

+ FORECAST OUTLOOK: KALMAEGI is expected to turn abruptly WNW to NW-ward

within the next 24 hours. It shall pass close to the Northern Tip of

Cagayan tomorrow afternoon and then pass just to the East of Batanes

Group early Thursday morning, July 17. The 3-day medium-range forecast

Shows the system accelerating NNW to Northward, passing along the NE coast

of Taiwan Friday afternoon, Jul 18 w/ forecast peak wind speeds of 110

km/hr. *Alternate Forecast Scenario: There is a possibilty that KALMAEGI

may track across Cagayan and move into the Calayan Group of Islands tomo-

rrow afternoon, if the High Pressure Steering Ridge to its North remains

strong.

+ EFFECTS: KALMAEGI's western outer & inner rain bands continues to spread

across Northern Luzon particularly along Cagayan, Isabela, Babuyan &

Calayan Group of Islands. Rains and winds not exceeding 95 km/hr can be

expected along these bands. Moderate to rough seas to prevail along the

coastal areas of the affected areas. Residents in low-lying areas must

seek higher grounds for possible flooding & landslides due to the anti-

cipated heavy rains brought about by this system. Precautionary measures

must be initiated if necessary.

+ CURRENT MONSOON INTENSITY: Strong Southwest (SW) Monsoon currently

enhanced by TS KALMAEGI (HELEN) continues to affect Metro Manila, Luzon,

Mindoro, Southern Quezon including Bicol Region. Partly Cloudy to Cloudy

skies with possible light to moderate passing rains w/ at times heavy

downpour & SW'ly winds not exceeding 40 km/hr can be expected. Landslides,

mudflows (lahars) and flooding is likely to occur along steep mountain/

volcano slopes, river banks, low-lying & flood-prone areas of the affected

areas. Strong ITCZ (aka. Monsoon Trough) affecting Visayas and Mindanao

bringing scattered rains and thunderstorms - most especially in the

afternoon or evening.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook,
effects & current monsoon intensity, and tropical cyclone watch changes
every 06 to 12 hours!
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TIME/DATE: 11:00 PM MANILA TIME (15:00 GMT) 15 JULY
LOCATION OF CENTER: LATITUDE 17.9º N...LONGITUDE 123.3º E
DISTANCE 1: 190 KM (103 NM) ESE OF APARRI, CAGAYAN, PH

DISTANCE 2: 325 KM (175 NM) SSE OF BASCO, BATANES, PH

DISTANCE 3: 185 KM (100 NM) ENE OF TUGUEGARAO CITY, PH

DISTANCE 4: 615 KM (333 NM) SSE OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN

MAX WINDS [10-MIN AVG]: 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) NEAR THE CENTER
PEAK WIND GUSTS: 110 KM/HR (60 KTS)
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE: N/A
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE (est.): 994 MILLIBARS (hPa)
RECENT MOVEMENT: WEST @ 02 KM/HR (01 KT)
GENERAL DIRECTION: CAGAYAN-BATANES AREA
STORM'S SIZE (IN DIAMETER): 370 KM (200 NM)/AVERAGE
MAX WAVE HEIGHT**: 11 FEET (3.3 METERS)
VIEW JMA TRACKING MAP: 11 PM MANILA TIME TUE JULY 15
TSR WIND PROBABILITIES: CURRENT TO 120 HRS LEAD

PHILIPPINE STORM SIGNALS*:
#02 - ISABELA, CAGAYAN, CALAYAN GROUP OF ISLANDS, APAYAO,
BATANES & ILOCOS NORTE.
#01 - ABRA, KALINGA, MT. PROVINCE, IFUGAO, NUEVA VIZCAYA,
QUIRINO, AURORA & ILOCOS SUR.

24, 48 & 72 HR. FORECAST:

8 PM (12 GMT) 16 JULY: 19.6N 122.6E / 85-120 KPH / NNW SLOWLY

8 PM (12 GMT) 17 JULY: 22.5N 122.3E / 95-130 KPH / N @ 13 KPH
8 PM (12 GMT) 18 JUNE: 26.0N 122.0E / 110-160 KPH / N @ 17 KPH

REMARKS: 8 PM (12 GMT) 15 JULY POSITION: 17.9N 123.4E.
^TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W IS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS AND HAS
INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SAT-
ELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, BUT CONSOLIDATING, LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH WELL ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE, AND NEWER BANDS BEGINNING TO FORM TO
THE NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT, HOWEVER
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD STILL EXISTS BETWEEN AVAILABLE AIDS WHICH, IN
GENERAL, CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD
(PERPENDICULAR TO THE STEERING RIDGE) DESPITE THE OBSERVED WESTWARD
MOTION OF THE SYSTEM...(more)

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PAGASA CURRENT POSITION, MOVEMENT AND INTENSITY (10-min. ave.):

> 10 PM (14 GMT) 15 JULY: 18.2N 123.2E / WNW @ 07 KPH / 75 kph

:: For the complete PAGASA bulletin, kindly visit their website at:
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml
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RECENT JMA TRACKING CHART:

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RECENT MTSAT-1R SATELLITE IMAGE:

> Image source: Digital-Typhoon.Org (http://www.digital-typhoon.org/)
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NOTES:

^ - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their
latest warning.

* - Based on PAGASA's Philippine Storm Warning Signals,
      # 4 being the highest. Red letters indicate new areas
      being hoisted. For more explanations on these signals,
      visit: http://www.typhoon2000.ph/signals.htm

** - Based on the Tropical Cyclone's Wave Height near
      its center.
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>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms
   used on this update visit the ff:

    http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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